What If Germany Had Not Gone To War With Russia?

[jimbotosome]

I would like to hear opinions on what people believe would have happened if Germany had declared war on the US but never invaded Russia. Could the Allies have beaten Hitler?

[Obri]

Interesting topic indeed. Hitler believed that a war with the Soviet Union was an inevitability, this belief stemming from the earliest days of the NSDAP. Despite Hitler's continued obsession with the great "showdown" with "Jewish Bolshevism", it's my opinion that Stalin had no interest, short term at least, in a war with Nazi Germany, as proved by his approval of the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact, and also his hesitation and almost disbelief at the launching of Barbarossa in 1941.

Before Barbarossa, Germany had closer links to Russia(no matter how contrived) than the US, so there would have been no question of Russians declaring war on Germany simply in support of the Americans. This would certainly suggest a more favourable outcome to the conflict from a German point of view.

I think the Allies would have had the strength and manpower necessary to defeat Hitler, but whether they would have wanted to participate in such a conflict without the Russians keeping the Wehrmacht busy on two fronts is highly doubtful in my mind. I vote a more favourable German outcome, if not quite the one Hitler desired. So, "Negotiated Peace", but with the Germans negotiating from the position of power, and subsequently making gains.

[jimbotosome]

Originally posted by Obri@Sep 13 2005, 07:56 AM
Interesting topic indeed. Hitler believed that a war with the Soviet Union was an inevitability, this belief stemming from the earliest days of the NSDAP. Despite Hitler's continued obsession with the great "showdown" with "Jewish Bolshevism"

Are you saying that Hitler believed that the Jews were behind Bolshevism? If so, is that factual or is it part of Hitler's blaming them for everything?

[Obri]

Originally posted by jimbotosome@Sep 14 2005, 03:01 AM
Are you saying that Hitler believed that the Jews were behind Bolshevism? If so, is that factual or is it part of Hitler's blaming them for everything?

Quoted post

I can't say for sure exactly what Hitler believed about Bolshevism(I have not read Mein Kampf), but he frequently coupled the Jews with Bolshevism in speeches. I would certainly not call it factual, but to Hitler, the two were inextricably linked.

[Kiwiwriter]

Good question. I put down "stalemate and drawn out war," because I think that had the Germans not broken the Non-Aggression Treaty, but concentrated on cutting off the Mediterranean and finishing off Britain, the distance of the Atlantic would have created a massive stalemate situation for a long time.

[Dac]

Good topic. I think Hitler felt he had little choice in attacking Russia in 1941. The Soviets had emmense forces, and were rapidly modernizing their equipment. The T-34 tank gave the Soviets superiority over German armor and would have been present in greater numbers in 1942, the same for the Yak fighter.

The purges of the 1930s left the Red Army almost headless, but a new officer corps was being created that Stalin felt he could trust. This would make the Soviets much more effective as time went on.

I think its probable that with his superiority in numbers and equipment(didn't even mention the Il-2) Stalin would have attacked Germany in 1942 or 1943. The war might have lasted longer than it did, but with its superiority in population and resources Russia, along with the Western Allies, would have defeated the Germans.

[Gnomey]

I believe that war with Russia was going to happen sooner or later whether Hitler attacked Stalin or Stalin attacked Hitler. The war I feel would maybe have lasted a bit longer but in my opinion the result would have been the same, Germany defeated and the allies victorious.

[Strumpfabwehr]

Interesting topic indeed. First of all you have to assume that the US stepped into the war at some point also in this scenario, even if the likehoodness of a german war declaration would probably be lower. (if you see the actual declaration as a hint to the japs to do the same for their allies with soviet). But Britain alone would never have stand out in the long run. In one way or another, they would be forced to sign peace.

With the european war mainly between USA/Commonwealth and Germany/Italy/, it would be between very evenly matched, and more importantly, without direct chanses for anyone to put the other out of the game. On almost all fronts, there would be ocean separating the combatants. The basic scenario we would see is the germans dominating the ground and allied superiority on the sea. With the eastern borders open, a blockade would be less painful for the germans. I think we are down to two options. A long drawn out stalemate war or soviet intervention against germany.

The u-boat war could possibly be the decisive front. With higher priority on resources and air support, who knows what them boats could have achieved. Maybe enough to make the allies feel they have to end the war. However I dont find it likely. They were never close to cutting off the lifelinfe over the Atlantic in real history, why now?

Atomic war? Maybe, but not at all nescesarily. How many cities would the allies have to bomb before Hitler allowed his untouched armies to surrender? How many were the allies prepared to drop? How would the rest of the world react?

my 4 cents

[spidge]

Hi Strumpfabwehr,

Look forward to some more loose change!

[adrian roberts]

There was a science-fiction film made just before WW2 called "The Shape of Things to Come" (or something like that, and I may be getting the title confused with another film). It ends with total war, starting about the time that WW2 actually did but going on for many decades and ending in the complete collapse of civilization. Clearly this is what many people thought might happen - a very long-drawn out stalemate.

But of course no-one before the war predicted the Atom bomb, and this would probably have been the decider. If the Nazis had fitted the V2 with a nuclear warhead we would have been stuffed.

In reality, for Hitler to invade the Soviet Union was such a major decision that it is difficult to believe that it was not something he always planned, and therefore pretty well inevitable.

Another interesting question would be what would have happened if Hitler had not declared war on the USA when they declared war on Japan? This was much more of a snap decision on his part, and therefore not inevitable. How long would it have taken the US to come in on our [the Commonwealth's] side, if at all, and could we have opened a second front with only lend-lease support from the US and not hands-on support?

Adrian