The CV19 thread

Discussion in 'The Lounge Bar' started by Dave55, Feb 28, 2020.

  1. Dave55

    Dave55 Atlanta, USA

  2. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

    Its a quote ! :surr:
     
  3. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

    The Coronapocalyps in Holland:

    On Feb 27th, 2020, the first case of Covid19 was discovered in southern Holland. It transpired later that the virus was already in the Netherlands on February 15, twelve days before the first patient was officially tested positive. For several weeks it spread undisturbed, with the massively celebrated carnival in the Catholic south of our country acting as a catalyst. The Netherlands below the rivers became a true hotbed for the virus. In late afternoon of Sunday 15 March Holland went into pause: bars and restaurants were closed, social distancing, no public gatherings of over 100 people. At the time we had 1.413 registered patients and 24 deaths. The actual number of infections was higher, because not everyone in Holland is tested, only those who are "at risk of a serious disease course" - the real number of infections on 16 March was estimated at about 6000 people. Re the deaths - the real number of deceased patients in Holland, is probably higher, since only the deaths of confirmed Covid patients are registered.

    Since then I've been editing on a daily basis how the situation in Holland changes. These are 'only' official figures. The actual number of infections and deaths is most likely much higher:

    17 March - 19 new death cases, that makes 43; total confirmed patients 1705 (an increase of 292)
    18 March - 15 new deaths, total now risen to 58; total confirmed patients 2051 (an increase of 346)
    19 March - 18 new deaths, total now 76; total confirmed patients 2465 (an increase of 414)
    20 March - 30 people died over the last 24 hours; total now 106; total confirmed patients 2994 (an increase of 529)
    21 March - 30 deaths in the last 24 hours, death toll now 136; total confirmed patients 3631 (an increase of 637)
    22 March - 43 deaths, death toll now 179; total confirmed patients 4216 (an increase of 585)
    23 March - 34 people died over the last 24 hours; total number 213; total confirmed patients 4.749 (an increase of 533)

    As of March 23rd further restrictions became effective - (an almost complete) lock down: schools were closed, no public gathering of more than three people, work at home, social distancing (these measures are effective until April 28th)

    24 March - 63 deaths; total number now 276; total confirmed patients 5560 (increase of 811)
    25 March - 80 new deaths, total now 356; total confirmed patients 6412 (an increase of 852)
    26 March - 78 deaths, total now 434; total confirmed patients 7431 (an increase of 1019)
    27 March - 112 deaths, total now 546; total confirmed patients 8603 (an increase of 1172)
    28 March - 93 new deaths, total now 639; total confirmed patient 9762 (an increase of 1159).
    29 March - 132 new deaths, the death toll now is 771; total confirmed patients 10.866 (an increase of 1104)
    30 March - 93 new deaths, total now is 864; total confirmed patients 11.750 (an increase of 884)
    31 March - 175 new deaths, total now 1.039; total confirmed patients 12.595 (an increase of 845)
    1 April - 134 new deaths, total now 1.173; total confirmed patients 13.614 (an increase of 1.019)
    2 April - 166 new deaths, the death toll now is 1.339; total confirmed patients 14.697 (an increase of 1.083).
    3 April - 148 new deaths, total number now 1.487; total confirmed patients 15.723 (an increase of 1.026)
    4 April - 164 new deaths, total now 1.651; total confirmed patients 16.627 (an increase of 902)
    5 April - 115 new deaths, total now 1.766; total confirmed patients 17.851 (an increase of 1.224)
    6 April - 101 new deaths, total now 1.867; total confirmed patients 18.803 (an increase of 952)
    7 April - 234 new deaths, total now 2.101; total confirmed patients 19.580 (an increase of 777)
    8 April - 147 new deaths, which brings the total number to 2.248; number of confirmed patients is 20.549 (an increase of 969).
    9 April - 148 new deaths, total now is 2.396; number of confirmed patients 21.762 (an increase of 1.213)
    10 April - 115 new deaths, total now is 2.511; number of confirmed patients 23.097 (an increase of 1.335)
    11 April - 132 new deaths, total now 2.643; number of confirmed patients is 24.413 (an increase of 1.316).
    12 April - 94 new deaths, total now 2.737; number of confirmed patients is 25.587 (an increase of 1.174).
    13 April - 86 new deaths, total now 2.823; number of confirmed patients is 26.551 (an increase of 964).
    14 April - 122 new deaths, total now 2.945; number of confirmed patients is 27.419 (an increase of 868).
    15 April - 189 new deaths, total now 3.134; number of confirmed cases 28.153 (an increase of 739)
    16 April - 181 new deaths, total now 3.315; number of confirmed cases 29.214 (an increase of 1.061)
    17 April - 144 new deaths, total now 3.459; number of confirmed cases 30.449 (an increase of 1.235)
    18 April - 142 deaths, total now 3.601; number of confirmed cases 31.589 (an increase of 1.140)
    19 April - 83 deaths, total now 3.684; number of confirmed cases 32.655 (an increase of 1.066)
    20 April - 67 deaths, total now 3.751; number of confirmed cases 33.405 (an increase of 750)
    21 April - 165 deaths, total now 3.916; number of confirmed cases 34.134 (an increase of 729)
    22 April - 138 deaths, total now 4.054; number of confirmed cases 34.842 (an increase of 708)
    23 April - 123 deaths, total now 4.177; number of confirmed cases 35.729 (an increase of 887)
    24 April - 112 deaths, total now 4.289; number of confirmed cases 36.535 (an increase of 806)
    25 April - 120 deaths, total now 4.409; number of confirmed cases 37.190 (an increase of 655)
    26 April - 66 deaths, total now 4.475; number of confirmed cases 37.845 (an increase of 655)
    27 April - 43 deaths, total now 4.518 number of confirmed cases 38.245 (an increase of 400)
    28 April - 48 deaths, total now 4.566 number of confirmed cases 38.416 (an increase of 171)
    29 April - 145 deaths, total now 4.711 number of confirmed cases 38.802 (an increase of 386)
    30 April - 84 deaths, total now 4.795 number of confirmed cases 39.316 (an increase of 514)
    1 May - 98 new deaths, total now 4.893; number of confirmed cases 39.791 (an increase of 475)
    2 May - 94 new deaths, total now 4.987; number of confirmed cases 40.236 (an increase of 445)
    3 May - 69 new deaths, total now 5.056; number of confirmed cases 40.571 (an increase of 335)
    4 May - 26 new deaths, total now 5.082; number of confirmed cases 40.770 (an increase of 199)
    5 May - 86 new deaths, total now 5.168; number of confirmed cases 41.087 (an increase of 317)
    6 May - 36 new deaths, total now 5.204; number of confirmed cases 41.319 (an increase of 232)
    7 May - 84 new deaths, total now 5.288; number of confirmed cases 41.774 (an increase of 455)
    8 May - 63 new deaths, total now 5.359; number of confirmed cases 42.093 (an increase of 319)
    9 May - 71 new deaths, total now 5.422; number of confirmed cases 42.382 (an increase of 289)
    10 May - 18 new deaths, total now 5.440; number of confirmed cases 42.627 (an increase of 245)

    From 11 May onward schools partly reopened, as are the barber shops(!). We now are allowed to go outside, provided we keep social distance (1,5 meters) and do not crowd (3 = a crowd). Effects of these mitigations will be visible in two to three weeks. From June 1st, if all goes well, further steps will be set in re-opening.

    11 May - 16 new deaths, total now 5.456; number of confirmed cases 42.788 (an increase of 161)
    12 May - 54 new deaths, total now 5.510; number of confirmed cases 42.948 (an increase of 196)
    13 May - 52 new deaths, total now 5.590; number of confirmed cases 43.211 (an increase of 227)
    14 May - 28 new deaths, total now 5.562; number of confirmed cases 43.481 (an increase of 270)
    15 May - 53 new deaths, total now 5.643; number of confirmed cases 43.681 (an increase of 200)
    16 May - 27 new deaths, total now 5.670; number of confirmed cases 43.870 (an increase of 189)
    17 May - 10 new deaths, total now 5.680; number of confirmed cases 43.995 (an increase of 125)
    18 May - 14 new deaths, total now 5.694; number of confirmed cases 44.141 (an increase of 146)
    19 May - 21 new deaths, total now 5.715; number of confirmed cases 44.249 (an increase of 108)
    20 May - 33 new deaths, total now 5.748; number of confirmed cases 44.447 (an increase of 198)
    21 May - 27 new deaths, total now 5.775; number of confirmed cases 44.700 (an increase of 253)
    22 May - 13 new deaths, total now 5.788; number of confirmed cases 44.888 (an increase of 188)
    23 May - 23 new deaths, total now 5.811; number of confirmed cases 45.064 (an increase of 176)
    24 May - 11 new deaths, total now 5.822; number of confirmed cases 45.236 (an increase of 172)
    25 May - 8 new deaths, total now 5.830; number of confirmed cases 45.445 (an increase of 209)
    26 May - 26 new deaths, total now 5.871; number of confirmed cases 45.768 (an increase of 190)

    Edit today:
    27 May - 15 new deaths, total now 5.856; number of confirmed cases 45.578 (an increase of 133)

    Holland now is in the eleventh week of a lock down, which started 15 March and which will last until June 1st. The fight against Covid is entering a new phase now that virologists and doctors have put out the first fire. Where the health crisis first dominated, there is increasing scope for other aspects and issues are becoming more political.

    Over the next period we will reopen step-by-step. Schools and day-care already started from 11 May onwards, but only for the youngest, the 4 - 12 years olds and only in small groups. On June 1st there will be a next step (a limited re-opening of restaurants, bars and terraces). For large public events, such as concerts and sport events (football), there is a 'no-go' until 1 September - I'm afraid this also might affect the Airborne celebrations at Arnhem next September. We slowly and carefully unlock. It is not the time to become overconfident. The daily statistics we see today are the delayed results of our behaviour of three weeks ago. We'll have to keep an eye on the number of hospitalizations, which will be an indicator of how well the re-opening goes.

    The good news: So far so good. Since we cautiously reopened the reproduction factor remains low at 0.8 or about. Today's hospital admissions were low at 7. Yesterday the number was 10, the day before yesterday 8 and the days before that resp. 13, 10, 7, 13, 14, 34, 25, 15, 45, 35, 27, 52, 35, 36, 22, 58, 35, 39, 27, 89, 44, 42, 97, 85, 84, 76, 88, 65, 75, 100, 123, 137, 124, 118, 75, 110, 129, 156, 182, 188, 210, 147, 196,189, 225, 237, 308, 292, 260, 253, 336, 502, 625, 447 and 722.

    The limited number of available ICU-beds is no longer an issue, with the lower influx rates we will cope. Today (20 May) the number of ICU-patients again has dropped to 227. Only one of them is still treated in a German hospital. This gives us some threshold in case infections spike again.

    On the minus side: We are still losing people on a daily basis. We now officially have registered nearly 45.400+ corona patients, of these 11.659 were admitted to hospital and a number of 5.830 people perished. The tally however is incomplete, more people have become infected with the virus and more died from its effects than has been registered. It gradually becomes clear that this is a substantial group and the official numbers are only part of the iceberg. Based on a study of the average death rates over the past few years in Holland, the real number of Covid-deaths might be many thousands more (latest estimate is 3.600). Especially hard hit are the nursing homes. While the focus lay on the capacity in the hospitals, the coronavirus in nursing homes was spreading like wildfire. This would bring deaths in Holland at least at 9.388 (= 548,26 per million).

    This is not a normal flu: Doctors and scientists are beginning to understand the demolition the coronavirus causes to the body, and are perplexed by what they see. It really affect patients from head to toe. "This virus is completely different from what we've seen so far." Perhaps the most important explanation for the severity of the new disease: Covid-19, doctors now say worldwide, is not only a lung disease, but starts with many severely ill patients with blood that clots. Yes, patients who stay in an IC bed for a long time are more likely to have clotting problems, but what doctors see happening in corona patients is much more serious, says radiologist and professor Edwin van Beek, one of the early researchers. In the past few months, with autopsies, he saw alveoli filled with fluid and inflammation, but also clots in the pulmonary veins and pulmonary arteries. Van Beek also affects relatively young patients with a stroke or with blood clots in the abdomen, he hears about patients with kidney damage that must be on dialysis, after which the tubes are sometimes clogged with lumps.



    For comparison the (official) mortality rate caused by Covid per million of inhabitants:
    (based on the deaths registered by the John Hopkins University)

    Belgium
    (11,4 mln) with 9.312 deaths, it is 816,84
    Spain (46,7 mln), with 28.752 deaths, is 615,67
    UK (66,5 mln) this number, with 36.996 deaths, is 556,33
    Italy (60,4 mln) with 32.877 deaths, the number is 544,32
    France (67,0 mln) with 28.460 deaths, is 424,78
    Sweden (10,2 mln) with 4.029 deaths is 395,00
    Holland (17,2 mln) with 5.856 deaths, it now is 340,47
    USA (327,2 mln) with 98.223 deaths, it's 300,19
    Canada (37,1 mln) with 6.655 deaths is 179,38
    Germany (82,9 mln) with 8.309 deaths is 100,23

    Population numbers (courtesy SteveDee) Coronavirus deaths per million by country 2020 | Statista

    Belgium still is the relatively hardest hit country in Europe and maybe world-wide (a death rate of 816+ per million inhabitants - the Belgian figures also take the non-confirmed corona-deaths into account). Spain and the UK (which now has by-passed Italy in absolute and relative numbers) follow at a distance. It seems that Germany, where the virus spread at the same time as in Holland, is coping well ... what is their secret? (28.000 ICU's and they also do a lot of testing, contact tracing and isolating).
    The death rates in Sweden, the only country in Europe that adopted the strategy of not locking down, are steadily on the rise and significantly higher than the surrounding Scandinavian countries (Denmark has a rate of 91,21, Norway 41,24 and Finland 48,37) - the Swedish death rate now is slightly higher than Holland. But group immunity in Sweden locally has attained a high level of 40% (Holland has 5 - 6 % and still has to open up). Makes me wonder: Is the Swedish strategy the better one in the long term?
    The deaths in the USA are rising and on first sight are schockingly high, but the country has a large population, so the death rate still is relatively low. At the moment Holland for example has a far higher rate. If the USA would have been hit as hard as Belgium, deaths would number 267.250+. The USA is a large country with wide areas with a sparse population density where the virus does not spread easily. My best guess is that the USA will approach the rates in France, which also is alternated by overcrowded cities and a sparsely populated countryside, provided they act wisely and do not open up too soon. This still will mean a considerable death toll of about 138.500+.
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2020
  4. m kenny

    m kenny Senior Member


    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30244-9/fulltext


    A unique situation has arisen for quite an accurate estimate of the CFR of COVID-19. Among individuals onboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, data on the denominator are fairly robust. The outbreak of COVID-19 led passengers to be quarantined between Jan 20, and Feb 29, 2020. This scenario provided a population living in a defined territory without most other confounders, such as imported cases, defaulters of screening, or lack of testing capability. 3711 passengers and crew were onboard, of whom 705 became sick and tested positive for COVID-19 and seven died, giving a CFR of 0·99%. If the passengers onboard were generally of an older age, the CFR in a healthy, younger population could be lower.
     
    Dave55 likes this.
  5. Dave55

    Dave55 Atlanta, USA

  6. Dave55

    Dave55 Atlanta, USA

    Local TV news every morning. Weather, traffic, shooting in SW Atlanta. 18 rounds, three hits, no fatalities over parking spot:

    Police searching for suspects who shot man over a parking dispute
     
  7. High Wood

    High Wood Well-Known Member

    Some good news at last amidst all the doom and gloom, Eric is now a father and here is his first born, Eric or Erica Junior. He have kept bantams for several years and only last winter we acquired Eric who, as with most cockerels, was unwanted. I had watched our girls getting broody every year and thought it might be nice for nature to take its course.

    I had to take mum off the nesting box so that we could check the chick and let mum have something to eat and drink. I managed to get one fuzzy photograph as mum was very anxious, and I didn't want to disturb junior more than I had to. Mum was back in moments and I will not disturb her again today.

    Chick 003.JPG
     
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  8. Dave55

    Dave55 Atlanta, USA

    Do you have a licence for Eric?
     
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  9. High Wood

    High Wood Well-Known Member

    A licence isn't a legal requirement for a cockerel here in England and anyway an ASBO would be more appropriate. He is named Eric after Eric Cantona but Harvey, as in Weinstein, would be more appropriate.

    Eric 002.JPG
    Eric 005.JPG
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2020
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  10. Dave55

    Dave55 Atlanta, USA

    It most certainly is!

     
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  11. High Wood

    High Wood Well-Known Member

    Are you the man from the ministry of housing?
     
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  12. TTH

    TTH Senior Member

    Cat Detector Van.jpg
     
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  13. Robert-w

    Robert-w Banned

    Not the nice man whose been on the 'phone offering to set up an account for all those moles on my property - he does have a slight chi chi accent so he's probably from Cardiff. However I told him if he could supply me with a PGAM (Projector Geriatric Anti Mole) to use from the upstairs back bedroom window I wouldn't need any mole licenses.
     
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  14. High Wood

    High Wood Well-Known Member

    He or she has made it through the night but no sign of any brothers or sisters yet.

    second day 005.JPG
     
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  15. KevinC

    KevinC Slightly wierd

    I take it they are not omelette material
     
  16. Blutto

    Blutto Banned

    Only if you like beaks in your omelette
     
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  17. Lindele

    Lindele formerly HA96

    Tricky question:
    A member ffrom Scotland wants to fly across to Germany to visit me and talk to two very old Wehrmacht guys, but this may be no good reason to get passed the German border control.
    Problem is these two +90 Germans cannot wai t for ever.:reallymad:
    Any good advise?
    Stefan
     
  18. High Wood

    High Wood Well-Known Member

    Absolutely not, I have been a vegetarian for donkey's years. However, our cat isn't and I suspect that she would have no hesitation, but I doubt that she would bother making an omelette.
     
  19. Dave55

    Dave55 Atlanta, USA

    Sometimes those hens can be pretty fierce though. Never can tell.
     
  20. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    Could imagine a video conference could be THE solution
     
    Lindele likes this.

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