I had a fantastic 4.5 hour walk today and saw that beer drinkers/polluters were back in action. In an area of outstanding beauty, where else, on the banks of the River Severn.
You think that's bad Rob; just look at these pictures, the dirty b*******. It really is disgusting. 'Inexcusable' littering as lockdown eases
The Coronapocalyps in Holland: On Feb 27th, 2020, the first case of Covid19 was discovered in southern Holland. It later transpired that the virus was already in the Netherlands on February 15, twelve days before the first patient was officially tested positive. For several weeks it spread undisturbed, with the massively celebrated carnival in the Catholic south of our country acting as a catalyst. The Netherlands below the rivers became a true hotbed for the virus. In late afternoon of Sunday 15 March Holland went into pause: bars and restaurants were closed, social distancing, no public gatherings of over 100 people. At the time we had 1.413 registered patients and 24 deaths. The actual number of infections was higher, because not everyone in Holland is tested, only those who are "at risk of a serious disease course" - the real number of infections on 16 March was estimated at about 6000 people. Re the deaths - the real number of deceased patients in Holland, is probably higher, since only the deaths of confirmed Covid patients are registered. Since then I've been editing on a daily basis how the situation in Holland changes. These are 'only' official figures. The actual number of infections and deaths is most likely much higher: 17 March - 19 new death cases, that makes 43; total confirmed patients 1705 (an increase of 292) 18 March - 15 new deaths, total now risen to 58; total confirmed patients 2051 (an increase of 346) 19 March - 18 new deaths, total now 76; total confirmed patients 2465 (an increase of 414) 20 March - 30 people died over the last 24 hours; total now 106; total confirmed patients 2994 (an increase of 529) 21 March - 30 deaths in the last 24 hours, death toll now 136; total confirmed patients 3631 (an increase of 637) 22 March - 43 deaths, death toll now 179; total confirmed patients 4216 (an increase of 585) 23 March - 34 people died over the last 24 hours; total number 213; total confirmed patients 4.749 (an increase of 533) As of March 23rd further restrictions became effective - (an almost complete) lock down: schools were closed, no public gathering of more than three people, work at home, social distancing (these measures are effective until April 28th) 24 March - 63 deaths; total number now 276; total confirmed patients 5560 (increase of 811) 25 March - 80 new deaths, total now 356; total confirmed patients 6412 (an increase of 852) 26 March - 78 deaths, total now 434; total confirmed patients 7431 (an increase of 1019) 27 March - 112 deaths, total now 546; total confirmed patients 8603 (an increase of 1172) 28 March - 93 new deaths, total now 639; total confirmed patient 9762 (an increase of 1159). 29 March - 132 new deaths, the death toll now is 771; total confirmed patients 10.866 (an increase of 1104) 30 March - 93 new deaths, total now is 864; total confirmed patients 11.750 (an increase of 884) 31 March - 175 new deaths, total now 1.039; total confirmed patients 12.595 (an increase of 845) 1 April - 134 new deaths, total now 1.173; total confirmed patients 13.614 (an increase of 1.019) 2 April - 166 new deaths, the death toll now is 1.339; total confirmed patients 14.697 (an increase of 1.083). 3 April - 148 new deaths, total number now 1.487; total confirmed patients 15.723 (an increase of 1.026) 4 April - 164 new deaths, total now 1.651; total confirmed patients 16.627 (an increase of 902) 5 April - 115 new deaths, total now 1.766; total confirmed patients 17.851 (an increase of 1.224) 6 April - 101 new deaths, total now 1.867; total confirmed patients 18.803 (an increase of 952) 7 April - 234 new deaths, total now 2.101; total confirmed patients 19.580 (an increase of 777) 8 April - 147 new deaths, which brings the total number to 2.248; number of confirmed patients is 20.549 (an increase of 969). 9 April - 148 new deaths, total now is 2.396; number of confirmed patients 21.762 (an increase of 1.213) 10 April - 115 new deaths, total now is 2.511; number of confirmed patients 23.097 (an increase of 1.335) 11 April - 132 new deaths, total now 2.643; number of confirmed patients is 24.413 (an increase of 1.316). 12 April - 94 new deaths, total now 2.737; number of confirmed patients is 25.587 (an increase of 1.174). 13 April - 86 new deaths, total now 2.823; number of confirmed patients is 26.551 (an increase of 964). 14 April - 122 new deaths, total now 2.945; number of confirmed patients is 27.419 (an increase of 868). 15 April - 189 new deaths, total now 3.134; number of confirmed cases 28.153 (an increase of 739) 16 April - 181 new deaths, total now 3.315; number of confirmed cases 29.214 (an increase of 1.061) 17 April - 144 new deaths, total now 3.459; number of confirmed cases 30.449 (an increase of 1.235) 18 April - 142 deaths, total now 3.601; number of confirmed cases 31.589 (an increase of 1.140) 19 April - 83 deaths, total now 3.684; number of confirmed cases 32.655 (an increase of 1.066) 20 April - 67 deaths, total now 3.751; number of confirmed cases 33.405 (an increase of 750) 21 April - 165 deaths, total now 3.916; number of confirmed cases 34.134 (an increase of 729) 22 April - 138 deaths, total now 4.054; number of confirmed cases 34.842 (an increase of 708) 23 April - 123 deaths, total now 4.177; number of confirmed cases 35.729 (an increase of 887) 24 April - 112 deaths, total now 4.289; number of confirmed cases 36.535 (an increase of 806) 25 April - 120 deaths, total now 4.409; number of confirmed cases 37.190 (an increase of 655) 26 April - 66 deaths, total now 4.475; number of confirmed cases 37.845 (an increase of 655) 27 April - 43 deaths, total now 4.518 number of confirmed cases 38.245 (an increase of 400) 28 April - 48 deaths, total now 4.566 number of confirmed cases 38.416 (an increase of 171) 29 April - 145 deaths, total now 4.711 number of confirmed cases 38.802 (an increase of 386) 30 April - 84 deaths, total now 4.795 number of confirmed cases 39.316 (an increase of 514) 1 May - 98 new deaths, total now 4.893; number of confirmed cases 39.791 (an increase of 475) 2 May - 94 new deaths, total now 4.987; number of confirmed cases 40.236 (an increase of 445) 3 May - 69 new deaths, total now 5.056; number of confirmed cases 40.571 (an increase of 335) 4 May - 26 new deaths, total now 5.082; number of confirmed cases 40.770 (an increase of 199) 5 May - 86 new deaths, total now 5.168; number of confirmed cases 41.087 (an increase of 317) 6 May - 36 new deaths, total now 5.204; number of confirmed cases 41.319 (an increase of 232) 7 May - 84 new deaths, total now 5.288; number of confirmed cases 41.774 (an increase of 455) 8 May - 63 new deaths, total now 5.359; number of confirmed cases 42.093 (an increase of 319) 9 May - 71 new deaths, total now 5.422; number of confirmed cases 42.382 (an increase of 289) 10 May - 18 new deaths, total now 5.440; number of confirmed cases 42.627 (an increase of 245) From 11 May onward schools partly reopened, as are the barber shops(!). We now are allowed to go outside, provided we keep social distance (1,5 meters) and do not crowd (3 = a crowd). Effects of these mitigations will be visible in two to three weeks. From June 1st, if all goes well, further steps will be set in re-opening. 11 May - 16 new deaths, total now 5.456; number of confirmed cases 42.788 (an increase of 161) 12 May - 54 new deaths, total now 5.510; number of confirmed cases 42.948 (an increase of 196) 13 May - 52 new deaths, total now 5.590; number of confirmed cases 43.211 (an increase of 227) 14 May - 28 new deaths, total now 5.562; number of confirmed cases 43.481 (an increase of 270) 15 May - 53 new deaths, total now 5.643; number of confirmed cases 43.681 (an increase of 200) 16 May - 27 new deaths, total now 5.670; number of confirmed cases 43.870 (an increase of 189) 17 May - 10 new deaths, total now 5.680; number of confirmed cases 43.995 (an increase of 125) 18 May - 14 new deaths, total now 5.694; number of confirmed cases 44.141 (an increase of 146) 19 May - 21 new deaths, total now 5.715; number of confirmed cases 44.249 (an increase of 108) 20 May - 33 new deaths, total now 5.748; number of confirmed cases 44.447 (an increase of 198) 21 May - 27 new deaths, total now 5.775; number of confirmed cases 44.700 (an increase of 253) 22 May - 13 new deaths, total now 5.788; number of confirmed cases 44.888 (an increase of 188) 23 May - 23 new deaths, total now 5.811; number of confirmed cases 45.064 (an increase of 176) 24 May - 11 new deaths, total now 5.822; number of confirmed cases 45.236 (an increase of 172) 25 May - 8 new deaths, total now 5.830; number of confirmed cases 45.445 (an increase of 209) 26 May - 26 new deaths, total now 5.856; number of confirmed cases 45.578 45.768 (an increase of 133) 27 May - 15 new deaths, total now 5.871; number of confirmed cases 45.768 (an increase of 190) 28 May - 32 new deaths, total now 5.903; number of confirmed cases 45.950 (an increase of 182) 29 May - 28 new deaths, total now 5.931; number of confirmed cases 46.126 (an increase of 176) 30 May - 20 new deaths, total now 5.951; number of confirmed cases 46.257 (an increase of 131) 31 May - 5 new deaths, total now 5.956; number of confirmed cases 46.442 (an increase of 185) 1 June - 6 new deaths, total now 5.962; number of confirmed cases 46.545 (an increase of 103) 2 June - 5 new deaths, total now 5.967; number of confirmed cases 46.647 (an increase of 102) 3 June - 10 new deaths, total now 5.977; number of confirmed cases 46.733 (an increase of 86) 4 June - 13 new deaths, total now 5.990; number of confirmed cases 46.942 (an increase of 209) 5 June - 15 new deaths, total now 6.005; number of confirmed cases 47.152 (an increase of 210) 6 June - 6 new deaths, total now 6.011; number of confirmed cases 47.335 (an increase of 183) 7 June - 2 new deaths, total now 6.013; number of confirmed cases 47.574 (an increase of 239) 8 June - 3 new deaths, total now 6.016; number of confirmed cases 47.739 (an increase of 165) 9 June - 15 new deaths, total now 6.031; number of confirmed cases 47.903 (an increase of 164) 10 June - 11 new deaths, total now 6.042; number of confirmed cases 48.087 (an increase of 184) 11 June - 2 new deaths, total now 6.044; number of confirmed cases 48.251 (an increase of 164) Edit today: 12 June - 9 new deaths, total now 6.053; number of confirmed cases 48.461 (an increase of 210) The number of new infections remains high, which is due to the higher amount of corona tests currently being conducted. Since Monday, June 1, anyone with complaints can get tested quickly, and in most cases the results will follow within a few days. "All Quiet on the COVID Front". After eleven weeks of lock down Holland is now in the second week of a gradual reopening. We are carefully taking the path of normal life again. The fight against Covid is entering a new phase now that virologists and doctors have put out the first fire. Where the health crisis first dominated, there is increasing scope for other aspects and issues are becoming more political. Today's hospital admissions were 5. Yesterday the number was 3, the day before yesterday 6 and the days before that resp. 5, 4, 3 ,11,12, 9, 6, 9, 5, 8, 9, 16, 7, 10, 8, 13, 10, 7, 13, 14, 34, 25, 15, 45, 35, 27, 52, 35, 36, 22, 58, 35, 39, 27, 89, 44, 42, 97, 85, 84, 76, 88, 65, 75, 100, 123, 137, 124, 118, 75, 110, 129, 156, 182, 188, 210, 147, 196,189, 225, 237, 308, 292, 260, 253, 336, 502, 625, 447 and 722. The limited number of available ICU-beds is no longer an issue, with the lower influx rates we will cope. Today (10 June) the number of ICU-patients again has dropped to 80. Only one of them is still treated in a German hospital. This gives us some threshold in case infections spike again. On the minus side: We are still losing people on a daily basis. We now officially have registered nearly 48.000+ corona patients, of these 11.808 were admitted to hospital and a number of 6.044 people perished. The tally however is incomplete, more people have become infected with the virus and more died from its effects than has been registered. It gradually becomes clear that this is a substantial group and the official numbers are only part of the iceberg. Based on a study of the average death rates over the past few years in Holland, the real number of Covid-deaths might be many thousands more (latest estimate is 3.600). Especially hard hit are the nursing homes. While the focus lay on the capacity in the hospitals, the coronavirus in nursing homes was spreading like wildfire. This would bring deaths in Holland at least at 9.644 (= 560,70 per million). This is not a normal Flu: Even the health of many corona patients who have not been hospitalized is still "shockingly bad" after months. Fatigue, shortness of breath, chest pressure, headache, muscle pain: Almost three months after the first symptoms of the virus, some of the corona patients who were sick at home still have serious complaints. This is evident from a Dutch poll by the Longfonds, the CIRO center and Maastricht University among more than 1600 people about complaints after corona. No less than 95 percent of respondents report problems with simple daily activities. 85 percent of the participants - with an average age of 53 - say they had a good condition before the infection. But 6 percent think that health is now back on track. Immunity comes painfully slow: Even in Sweden, one of the few countries in Europe that has never introduced a lockdown to stem the corona epidemic, group immunity against the coronavirus is far from in sight. This is evident from the first measurement by the Swedish public health institute. The report reports that in Stockholm now 7.3 percent of the population has antibodies to the virus, elsewhere in Sweden it is around 4 percent - disappointingly far from the level at which group immunity can be expected. That is the condition that so many people have built up immunity against the virus that will self-extinguish the epidemic without measures. According to experts, that level for this virus is reached SARS-CoV-2 from the moment 60 percent of the population has developed immunity. For comparison the (official) mortality rate caused by Covid per million of inhabitants: (based on the deaths registered by the John Hopkins University) Belgium (11,4 mln) with 9.636 deaths, it is 845,26 UK (66,5 mln) this number, with 41.364 deaths, is 622,02 Spain (46,7 mln), with 27.136 deaths, is 581,01 Italy (60,4 mln) with 34.167 deaths, the number is 565,68 Sweden (10,2 mln) with 4.814 deaths is 471,96 France (67,0 mln) with 29.349 deaths, is 438,05 Holland (17,2 mln) with 6.053 deaths, it now is 351,92 USA (327,2 mln) with 113.820 deaths, it's 347,86 Canada (37,1 mln) with 8.071 deaths is 217,55 Germany (82,9 mln) with 8.772 deaths is 105,81 Population numbers (courtesy SteveDee) Coronavirus deaths per million by country 2020 | Statista. Some countries - like Belgium - include suspected Covid deaths that were not tested. The official corona mortality of various countries is therefore less comparable. Belgium still is the relatively hardest hit country in Europe and maybe world-wide (a sky-high death rate of 845+ per million inhabitants - but Belgium has been very strict with itself. It counts not only deaths after a positive test, but also of persons with symptoms that indicate the virus.). The UK and Spain follow at a distance. It seems that Germany, where the virus spread at the same time as in Holland, is coping well ... what is their secret? (28.000 ICU's and they also do a lot of testing, contact tracing and isolating). The death rates in Sweden, the only country in Europe that opted for a smooth approach, with only a very limited lockdown, are steadily on the rise and significantly higher than the surrounding Scandinavian countries and now even is higher than France. The Swedes now regret the chosen approach. The deaths in the USA are rising and at first sight seem shockingly high, but the country has a large population, so the death rate still is relatively low. Holland for example still has a higher rate. If the USA would have been hit as hard as Belgium, deaths would number 276.500+. The USA is a large country with wide areas with a sparse population density where the virus does not spread easily. My best guess is that the USA will approach the rates in France, which also is alternated by overcrowded cities and a sparsely populated countryside, provided they act wisely and do not open up too soon. This still will mean a considerable death toll of about 143.000+.
The huge crowds in every city in the US seem to indicate that covid crisis is over here. We've started binge watching Downton Abbey. I have to admit I'm enjoying it even if I have to turn in my man card. Great vehicles, sets and costumes and the story line is pretty good too. IMCDb.org: "Downton Abbey, 2010-2015": cars, bikes, trucks and other vehicles
On the brighter side of things, the amount of time I have spent in the garden, combined with the warm weather, have resulted in some very healthy blooms:
You do realise that once you hand in your man card you never get it back. The mrs has me watching "Pose" at the moment
Some wild, cultivated and orchids in my flat at home. The last photo is a dumped sofa and self seeded plant. Beauty and the beast.
Nice, Rob ! The abandoned seat a bit of a dissonant. A visit to Ebeltoft in Denmark last Summer inspired us to plant hollyhocks (I hope this is the correct name) around the house. These flowers need little space. Mine have yet to grow, but this is how it looked over there 'up North'.
This is fun, and further reinforces the danger of getting too excited about comparative graphs: The limits of what we can say about early lockdowns - Full Fact There's going to be a statisticians bloodbath over the next couple of years sorting out this mess. Presumably they no longer fight with straight edges or slide rules, and now just hit each other with laptops & sharpened tablets.
And over that other phrase beaten into meaninglessness by over use "guided by the science" which is used by politicians (who are supposed to be the ones in charge and therefore to be held responsible) to get themselves off the hook and is increasingly like Mussolini saying 'well the generals advised me that we could win so it's all their fault'
I think there will be many lockdown related deaths from suicides, domestic violence, overdoses, etc. They should throw them into the statistical mess too. From a friend's local paper in Maine.
If one looks at excess mortality then this gets taken into account. The problem is one can only get a reasonable view of this looking back, usually after about a year
I'm still going around with a camera (a new shiny one) and looking for interesting shots. Visited the grounds of an Abbey (Llanthony Priory, Gloucester) today. I'll post them if it interests anyone. Photographing recent flooding, plants, wild flowers, nature, birds, graffiti, architecture. Anything to lift the spirits at the moment. I'm staying well away from all people. Shopping in the Supermarkets works for me, as a small walk tells me what I need to know. No queues and little foot traffic. I'm in and out.
