Sometimes these days I feel as if I'm living in a Lewis Carroll story. An American expatriate I know in the UK has tended to poo-pooh the whole thing from the start. Now she's posted a link from MSN.NBC saying that Sweden has done just fine without a lockdown. And yet when I look at the numbers cited above by Stolpi (who is obviously on top of the latest European info) it is clear that Sweden is only just behind us in awfulness. So, what Swedish Minitru did MSN.NBC get their cheery story from? And why does my otherwise sensible expat friend buy that story? "I never know what's going on."---Charlie Brown
To quote Simon and Garfunkle "All lies and jests. Still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest"
This was a funny story on the bbc website. Coronavirus: Football team loses 37-0 in socially distanced match
If the image used on the article is a true reflection of the playing surface, then the game will have to be replayed.
Interestingly, if Sweden had an equivalent death rate to what we have experienced in Canada, close to 3,300 lives would theoretically have been saved there (325 per m). Essentially, that is the trade off for not having an extended lock down or a severe curtailing of the economy as was implemented here. In the end, it comes down to the value you place on human life in assessing the 2 different approaches. I cannot help but thinking that the equation is incomplete because the death toll from rampant mental health issues, suicides, drug overdoses, deaths due to the delay/suspension of normal medical procedures, etc. etc. are not counted on the other side of the ledger. It will take at least 2 years for Canada to clear the current backlog of over 400,000 delayed surgeries. As Stolpi has so correctly stated, the virus is not nearly done with us yet so perhaps it's premature to either praise or condemn Sweden until the full story is written.
The applicability and efficacy of different responses will be determined very much by the nature of a country's size, social structure,economy,culture , population profile and even climate. For example a country with a relatively small but highly educated socially liberal population, a culture of personal social responsibility and a temperate climate may well find solutions different to say one with a larger but less well educated population with a more authoritarian culture and a warmer climate. Inter country general caparisons are largely worthless except for scapegoating exercises and selling newsprint. One may be able to loosely compare one small northern Scandinavian country with another but that's about it.
I don't understand the British. Covid cases are rising and yet they bitch because the pubs close at 10. Stay at home. It's very simple.
You should talk to my expat friend. Like many ex-Yanks in the UK she's become more British than the British. She thinks COVID is all something about nothing and she relies on Stiff Upper Lip and Carry On Regardless.
I don't understand being constantly told how 'simple' it is. Cases rising as testing rose, using a test that is said to be massively oversensitive. Meanwhile, actual deaths occurring at a rate lower than that traditionally attributed to flu. My income quartered. My every move from social interactions to buying vegetables somehow the business of government. Leadership that appears to have no more plan than one panicked authoritarian reaction after another. Cancer & other chronic patients thrown to the wind. Simple? My perspective is that it's a virus. They happen, and will take who they will absolutely regardless of countermeasures. Betting that when the statistical work is done in a decade, that adjusted for population density and other demography absolutely everywhere will have suffered roughly similar death rates. Sweden will have gone through the process without destroying it's social life, internal economy, cancer care etc. By following immunology with determined policy rather than crashing about under the sway of journalists and computer modellers with appalling track records.
Adam Good healthy scepticism and analysis in my mind. A few aspects to consider: 1. The number of excess deaths (number of deaths in the population compared to what would normally be expected) 2. The overall wellbeing of those left (that includes all aspects of wellbeing most notably health and economic wellbeing etc which make 'life worth living') 3. Whether you want to be part of the statistics or studying the statistics after the event.
Latest from the ONS: "In Week 36, the number of deaths registered was 15.7% below the five-year average (1,443 fewer deaths); this is the first time since Week 32 that weekly deaths have been below the five-year average." And we're supposed to destroy our economy, businesses, other health & social lives because of this? Just dropping sprog alpha off at university. Online classes, online Freshers fair etc etc, for something that gathers people that age in infinitesimally small numbers, they're willing to demolish a significant moment in making friends & becoming an adult? Very very tired of this. Very tired of being told how obvious it all is while looking at my bank balance & seeing other acquaintances slowly unravel.
While we all have our own perspectives, I basically agree. Controlled Herd Immunity (non PC so unlikely to be official policy in the U.K. but likely to be what Sweden are doing, and we will know in 100(?) years time whether it's current 'official' strategy or not) while protecting the vulnerable would be best in my mind albeit I refer to point #3 in my post above. Edit: and good luck to Sprog Alpha and may all their dreams come true.
It is not even known if herd immunity works with this virus and it may be a chimera as it may be posssible to catch the thing more than once.
Everyone keeps pointing to Sweden as the model we should have followed, but the stats are a lot less convincing. Deaths per million of population. USA 615 yes they now exceed us as of yesterday. U.K. 614 Italy 591 Sweden 580 Denmark 110 Finland 61 Norway 49 And , while it’s economy has faired better than some EU countries, it has still suffered significantly. Sweden's economy hit less hard by coronavirus Swedish society generally seems to operate differently from our own. The Govt didn’t impose a lockdown because it didn’t need to. The Swedes seem to have taken the advice given and effectively carried out their own voluntary lockdown, working from home etc. We in the U.K. seem to have to told what to do and have sanctions imposed to get us to comply. My daughter too is back at University, and already the tales of big parties having to be broken up are circulating and positive Covid tests coming from attendees. Social distancing has gone out the window. So what of those undetected cases? Who are they circulating with, other than fellow students? Older friends, family etc who are potentially more at risk. As always youth believes it is indestructible. The world has changed and it in many ways it won’t be going back to how it was last year. We are all going to have to learn to adapt to the new reality difficult though that may be.
The funny thing to me as an ancient who would like to predict rear-wheel punctures is that I can't, but I can fix it ( much easier at home ) but I can only agree with Robert that we still don't know much about the herd immunity. I can't try to protect against the virus by checking tyre pressures, keeping oil off the tyre, using " Half Marathons" or tyres with more rubber, avoiding rubbish lying on the road. I could, if I had a smartphone, download the new NHS Tracing App ( supposed to arrive on Thursday 24th September ) to tell me that I've come in close proximity to a what ? ( puncture ? virus? ) until it is tested by numerous unnamed sub-contractors of an outsourced testing system. The nameless may have the power to fine me £10,000 for not having a smartphone. I agree with VP's comment about why his buying of vegetables is somehow the business of government, as if my punctures are the business of government. So I've got to get a smartphone just to scan a QR code so I can avoid a fine, not a virus, and least of all, my trivial punctures. A friend of my wife's telephone in June. She and her husband went to a musical theatre in London in January. Husband got a "cold." Doctor gave him antibiotics and he continued working as a self-employed builder. Got over it, but in February fell asleep watching telly and never woke up. Died in his mid-50's of what ? As the widow said, who knows ? Smashing chap, splashed out on a BMW M3 about ten years ago because they could just about afford it. I am so very glad that he did. Don't panic, chaps, and don't forget to have your PSA tested. Don't die of ignorance.
It is simple. The virus is a simple thing. It needs a host to replicate and survive. Take away the host and it dies. Unfortunately it's host is a very complicated creature that needs to feel the urge to not listen to recommendations and crowd into small spaces.
Three huge companies independent from each other are close with their vaccines and hundreds more are working on it. Hundreds of millions of doses are already ready. Millions more are being produced and stored each day. When approval is granted they will be available the next day. Won't be long now. Pfizer proposes expansion of late-stage coronavirus vaccine trial
