Why Japan Really Lost The War From: Grim Economic Realities Introduction It's no secret that Japan was, shall we say, 'economically disadvantaged' in her ability to wage war against the Allies. However, the sheer, stunning magnitude of this economic disparity has never ceased to amaze me. So, just to give you an idea of the magnitude of the mismatch here, I decided to compile a few statistics. Most of them are taken from Paul Kennedy's "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" (which, among other things, contains an excellent analysis of the economic forces at work in World War II, and is an all-around great book) and John Ellis' "World War II: A Statistical Survey." In this comparison I will focus primarily on the two chief antagonists in the Pacific War: Japan and the United States. They say that economics is the 'Dismal Science'; you're about to see why.... Overview By the time World War II began to rear it's ugly head (formally in 1939 in Poland, informally in China in 1937), America had been in the grips of the Great Depression for a decade, give or take. The net effect of the Depression was to introduce a lot of 'slack' into the U.S. economy. Many U.S. workers were either unemployed (10 million in 1939) or underemployed, and our industrial base as a whole had far more capacity than was needed at the time. In economic terms, our 'Capacity Utilization' (CapU), was pretty darn low. To an outside culture, particularly a militaristic one such as Japan's, America certainly might have appeared to be 'soft' and unprepared for a major war. Further, Japan's successes in fighting far larger opponents (Russia in the early 1900's, and China in the 1930's) and the fact that Japan's own economy was practically 'superheating' (mostly as the result of unhealthy levels of military spending -- 28% of national income in 1937) probably filled the Japanese with a misplaced sense of economic and military superiority over their large overseas foe. However, a dispassionate observer would also note a few important facts. America, even in the midst of seemingly interminable economic doldrums, still had: xx Nearly twice the population of Japan. xx Seventeen time's Japan's national income. xx Five times more steel production. xx Seven times more coal production. xx Eighty (80) times the automobile production. Furthermore, America had some hidden advantages that didn't show up directly in production figures. For one, U.S. factories were, on average, more modern and automated than those in Europe or in Japan. Additionally, American managerial practice at that time was the best in the world. Taken in combination, the per capita productivity of the American worker was the highest in the world. Furthermore, the United States was more than willing to utilize American women in the war effort: a tremendous advantage for us, and a concept which the Axis Powers seem not to have grasped until very late in the conflict. The net effect of all these factors meant that even in the depths of the Depression, American war-making potential was still around seven times larger than Japan's, and had the 'slack' been taken out in 1939, it was closer to nine or ten times as great! In fact, according to Kennedy, a breakdown of total global war making potential in 1937 looks something like this: Country % of Total Warmaking Potential United States 41.7% Germany 14.4% USSR 14.0% UK 10.2% France 4.2% Japan 3.5% Italy 2.5% Seven Powers (total) (90.5%)
Country % of Total Warmaking Potential United States 41.7% Germany 14.4% USSR 14.0% UK 10.2% France 4.2% Japan 3.5% Italy 2.5% Seven Powers (total) (90.5%) It takes the next four powers combined (and two are unoccupied allies), to equal the United States productivity (actually exceeding it slightly). So many of the "How-can-we-make-Germany-win" types seem to neglect this aspect.
It takes the next four powers combined (and two are unoccupied allies), to equal the United States productivity (actually exceeding it slightly). So many of the "How-can-we-make-Germany-win" types seem to neglect this aspect. I'm always amused by the fact that the 'How-can-we-make-Germany-win' brigade tend to make the same mistakes as Germany did such as lack of consideration of economics & logistics & assuming that everything hinged on one battle & if they could just have won it by better tactics then they'd have won the war.
I'm always amused by the fact that the 'How-can-we-make-Germany-win' brigade tend to make the same mistakes as Germany did such as lack of consideration of economics & logistics & assuming that everything hinged on one battle & if they could just have won it by better tactics then they'd have won the war. You mean if Rommel had beaten Montgomery at Alamein then it would have been all for nothing??
I dont think superior power and manpower are just enough to win a war. The Soviets were inmensely numerically and industrialy superior to the Finnish, yet in the Russian- Finnish war the victory was Phyrric. In Vietnam war the strengh of the U.S army was inmensely superior to the ones of the V.C and The Army of North Vietnam, yet they lost the war. In Iraq its the same and The U.S is loosing the war...
Germany COULD have won, yet it made many mistakes. Naming this errors now is nonsense, everyone knows them.
I dont think superior power and manpower are just enough to win a war. The Soviets were inmensely numerically and industrialy superior to the Finnish, yet in the Russian- Finnish war the victory was Phyrric. In Vietnam war the strengh of the U.S army was inmensely superior to the ones of the V.C and The Army of North Vietnam, yet they lost the war. In Iraq its the same and The U.S is loosing the war... Not wishing to drag this into a Vietnam discussion, the US military did not lose the war, the public lost it's will to fight. Had LBJ allowed the war to be prosecuted early on as it could have (note, I did not say "should"), the war could have ended differently.
Nihon Kaigun great link covering the IJN and a good addition to the link offered by Spidge HP The best Japanese site on the web. I use it often. You will also find the "Why Japan lost the war" story on this site as well.
The best Japanese site on the web. I use it often. You will also find the "Why Japan lost the war" story on this site as well. After all is said and done, I find it one of the best on the net regardless what the subject. I've been using it for about four years on so. onya HP
History is not silent on the outcome Japan expected from its invasion of China and colonial territories in East Asia. At the zenith of its territorial gains it expected to negotiate a settlement with the Allies. The Japanese government knew it could not win a protracted war against the USA. Only six months into the war Japan was making very discreet enquiries..........actually at the secret behest of Marquis Koichi Kido, Lord Privy Seal and the emperor's chief advisor. The military bureaucracy, in thrall to Gen. Hideki Tojo, would have assassinated him had they known. The armed services and the ministry of war were intoxicated with success and were in no mood to relinquish their achievements. They would have brooked no interference from civilian authorities. The army had control of police forces through the Kempeitai and exerted an iron grip on civilian criticism. Hirohito, himself, was an enthusiastic player and was kept fully abreast of war cabinet sessions and decisions. He was far from the closeted, aloof, dilettante marine biologist. His brothers were officers in the armed forces and travelled widely to gather information for their emperor.
Seems reasonable, But not sure total economic output or capability is directly proportional to war-making ability. Takes time and different nations must have had different exceptions of how much capacity must be left on non war production. Very interesting how the economics work, where did the US and Germany get all that money from? The US practically bankrolled the war and how did Hitler turn turn a practically bankrupted state into such high position, amazing. Good post. Kev
Kev, German economic recovery was in swing already before Hitler came to power, all he did was allow the same crew to continue. Thank goodness for this forum, nazi fanboys wilt so quickly
Germany COULD have won, yet it made many mistakes. Naming this errors now is nonsense, everyone knows them. The principal error was not to listen to Panzer Land
Seems reasonable, But not sure total economic output or capability is directly proportional to war-making ability. Takes time and different nations must have had different exceptions of how much capacity must be left on non war production. Very interesting how the economics work, where did the US and Germany get all that money from? The US practically bankrolled the war and how did Hitler turn turn a practically bankrupted state into such high position, amazing. Good post. Kev nothing special :both were printing money (you know:the Keynes things)
Very interesting how the economics work, where did the US and Germany get all that money from? Kev, suggested reading: "War, Economy and Society 39-45" by Alan S. Milward. Also a good read "Wages of Destruction" by Adam Tooze, but rather turgid re. the post WW1 shenanigans, and also the author clearly becomes tired by 2/3 of the book. In any case a complete denounciation of the Speer myth.
Slipdigit writes, Not wishing to drag this into a Vietnam discussion, the US military did not lose the war, the public lost it's will to fight. Had LBJ allowed the war to be prosecuted early on as it could have (note, I did not say "should"), the war could have ended differently. Not wishing to compound the error of being off-topic, if this assertion is allowed to go unchallenged a reader might accept it as truth. If the US had not withdrawn from Vietnam you could still be fighting a war there. Notice I did not write "would". Biggles Prime
