Ukraine War. 2022-

Discussion in 'Postwar' started by CL1, Feb 26, 2022.

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  1. CL1

    CL1 116th LAA and 92nd (Loyals) LAA,Royal Artillery

    States 2 killed in Poland in Russian missile strike

    1. Two people have been killed in Poland after dozens of missiles were launched at targets across Ukraine, reports say
     
  2. davidbfpo

    davidbfpo Patron Patron

    Will Poland request under Article 4 that this is an attack on its territory? Which states:
    NATO Secretary-General:
    Both quotes from: Ukraine war latest: Russian missiles land in Poland, killing two - reports - BBC News
     
  3. JDKR

    JDKR Member

    If it was an S-300 missile/missiles then these elderly weapons are fielded by both Russia and Ukraine. More evidence needed of origin and intent.
     
  4. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    Current status: Most likely Ukrainian S-300
    WWIII would like to be picked up by his parents at the cash desk please
     
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  5. EmpireUmpire

    EmpireUmpire .........

    Russian missile = deliberate provocation
    Ukrainian missile = it's OK, accidents happen
     
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  6. CL1

    CL1 116th LAA and 92nd (Loyals) LAA,Royal Artillery

    If russia had not illegally invaded Ukraine and killed thousands of people and russia did not lob weapons on Ukraine then this would not have happened.
    If it turns out to be a Ukrainian anti missile missile then again this would not have happened if russia had not invaded

    Some people forget putin and his allies kill at the drop of a hat.
    Sadly a lot of those killed were never taught how to fall like Uncle Albert.
    Also the countries who have not spoken out against him should be ashamed of themselves
     
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  7. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    It's really crazy what propaganda, confirmation bias and clickbait has been thrown out ad hoc.
    This is exactly why source criticism was invented in the first place:
    I actually had to explain to some very concerned acquaintances how Article 5 works and the only mushrooms you'll see in the next few days are growing in the forest (it looks like it's going to be a good season, by the way - I've already collected some doozy specimens)
     
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  8. von Poop

    von Poop Adaministrator Admin

    Zelensky responding in that manner before anything about this missile has been confirmed was stupid. Does his (I think just) cause no good at all & fuels his critics.

    Though I'm increasingly irritated by a worldwide tendency to not just wait for a moment when news is uncertain.
    I think I probably blame Twatter.

    Poland is a grown-up country.
    I'm interested mostly in what Poland has to say about Polish citizens dying. Their call really.
    Though of course; when it comes to certain countries the Poles have their own biases too. :forkeyes:

    Imagine being one of the NATO bods dealing with this right now. Interesting day at the office...
     
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  9. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    After studying cognitive biases in depth, I became painfully aware that my hypotheses often have more to do with the wheel of fortune than with objective competence
    But it has never stopped me from spouting nonsense either....
    sigh
     
  10. Andsco

    Andsco Well-Known Member

    I did think when I saw Zelensky on the news last night that he was jumping the gun, maybe the pressure was getting to him as Ukraine did have a particularly hard day with the amount of missiles launched at them. It's the first political mistake I seem to recall him making.

    I did assume initially it was a Russian one that had strayed and not a deliberate act. As for the Russian denial perhaps "the boy who cried wolf" syndrome for all their previous denials of things they did do. I'm also thinking they would be making note of the western reaction.
     
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  11. Rich Payne

    Rich Payne Rivet Counter Patron 1940 Obsessive

    What sort of system do these missiles use to find their targets and detonate in proximity ? I assume that something more happened here than when I used to try firing firework rockets over the neighbours roofs and they sometimes fell out of the sky where it wasn't intended ?

    Were these two casualties simply unlucky or was the missile drawn to the tractor ?

    Ack-ack always caused quite a lot of damage on the ground, but this was a big hole.
     
  12. von Poop

    von Poop Adaministrator Admin

    Been thinking about future historians.
    Yeah. 'Russian' missiles. Lots of Russki kit on both sides, but...
    They were indeed 'Russian' missiles. Technically.

    Fhq_90dXoAE1GOY.jpeg Fhq_-BKWAAYFP0F.jpeg Fhq_9kDWAAQ_ohS.jpeg

    Aren't 'sources' interesting. Context etc.
    (And yes, of course, nobody would be sending such into the air without the invasion, but the targeted should still maybe be cautious when the impications can be so wide.)

    That falling Ack Ack thing always intrigued me.
    There's a thread here somewhere about London casualties from the city's own guns.
    Cannot find the bastard.
     
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  13. von Poop

    von Poop Adaministrator Admin

    Aha.
    Even without asking the Owenmemory.

    WW2Talk - Injuries from the sky
    WW2Talk - Flak: How effective was it
     
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  14. Rich Payne

    Rich Payne Rivet Counter Patron 1940 Obsessive

    Can these be nudged off course by the target without detonating or did the Llama-Rustlers get lucky and do something with the guidance systems ?
     
  15. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    Officially, the radar data is quite clear. And there is a precedent for such an incident:
    'Stray Syrian anti-aircraft missile' hits northern Cyprus

    When the fuel is exhausted, Mr Newton's discovery comes into play. The warhead then also explodes only on impact and leaves a corresponding crater
    AAjpg.jpg
    Zaporizhzhia district, 19.09.2022

    It was unbelievably unlucky for the victims.
    And now we can look forward to a lively round of blame game and absurd conspiracy theories.
     
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  16. davidbfpo

    davidbfpo Patron Patron

    An article (open access) from The Wavell Room 'Fighting power and the war in Ukraine': Fighting power and the war in Ukraine » Wavell Room

    The purpose is succinctly put:
     
  17. brithm

    brithm Senior Member


    President Zelenskyy disputes view of Nato, Warsaw and US that weapon was likely fired by Kyiv’s air defence forces

    A disagreement broke out on Wednesday between Ukraine and its western allies over who launched a missile that exploded in Poland, with Nato, Warsaw and the US saying the weapon was likely fired by Kyiv’s air defence forces during a Russian attack. Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy disputed this, insisting he had “no doubt” the missile that landed in the village of Przewodów near the Ukrainian border on Tuesday afternoon, killing two people, was not a Ukrainian missile. Jens Stoltenberg, Nato secretary-general, told a press conference in Brussels there was “no indication” that the missile attack was a “deliberate attack” by Moscow. He added the western military alliance had “no indication that Russia is preparing offensive military actions against Nato”. “Our preliminary analysis suggests that the incident was likely caused by Ukrainian air defence missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian cruise missile attacks,” he said. However, he added: “This is not Ukraine’s fault. Russia bears responsibility for what happened in Poland yesterday because this is a direct result of the ongoing war, and the wave of attacks from Russia against Ukraine yesterday. “Ukraine has the right to shoot down those missiles that are targeting Ukrainian cities and critical Ukrainian infrastructure.”

    Andrzej Duda, Poland’s president, told a press conference in Poland on Wednesday that investigators believed that “most likely” it had been a Russian-made missile produced in the 1970s, the S300. “We have no evidence that it was launched by Russia.” The White House backed Warsaw’s view. “We have seen nothing that contradicts President Duda’s preliminary assessment that this explosion was most likely the result of a Ukrainian air defence missile that unfortunately landed in Poland,” US National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said. Defence secretary Lloyd Austin echoed Watson’s assessment and said that US experts are on the ground helping with the investigation. General Mark Milley, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, said he tried to contact his Russian counterpart on Tuesday as part of an effort to understand the situation and prevent any possible escalation, but couldn’t reach him. Zelenskyy and some western nations initially blamed Russia for launching the weapon, which was fired during Moscow’s biggest missile attack in weeks, and Ukraine’s leader maintained this stance on Wednesday. “I have no doubt from the evening report to me personally — from the commander of the air force to commander-in-chief [of Ukraine’s military Gen Valerii] Zaluzhny — that it was not our missile or our missile strike,” he said on Wednesday evening. “It makes no sense for me not to trust them, I’ve gone through the war with them.” The president also repeated calls by his national security chief, Oleksiy Danilov, for Ukrainian investigators to be given access to the crash site. “If, God forbid, some [missile] debris killed these people, we have to apologise,” he said. “But, sorry, first [I want] an investigation, access, the data you have — we want to have this.” Responding to Zelenskyy’s comments, a diplomat from a Nato country in Kyiv told the Financial Times: “This is getting ridiculous. The Ukrainians are destroying [our] confidence in them. Nobody is blaming Ukraine and they are openly lying. This is more destructive than the missile.” The area around the strike, which local media said used to be an agriculture co-operative during the communist era, was cordoned off by Poland’s authorities. Residents were quoted in the Polish press as saying the victims were farm workers in their 60s. Photos on social media showed a damaged vehicle lying next to a large crater. Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for Russia’s president Vladimir Putin, told reporters on Wednesday that the initial claims of Moscow’s responsibility from Kyiv and some western allies were “yet another hysterical, rabidly Russophobic reaction that was not based on any real information”.

    Russia insisted it did not fire on any targets close to Poland’s border and said any damage to civilians was Kyiv’s fault. The defence ministry said it had not even fired on Kyiv during the day’s barrage, and said the incident in Poland was a “deliberate provocation with the goal of escalating the situation”. In his press conference, Stoltenberg declined to give details of what led to the incident, stressing it remained subject to an investigation, but he confirmed that preliminary analysis pointed to a Ukrainian air defence system. “This incident does not have the characteristics of an attack,” he said, adding that it had not changed Nato’s fundamental assessment of the threat to the alliance. A top priority was to provide more air defence systems to Ukraine.

    Sam Fleming in Brussels, Raphael Minder and Barbara Erling in Warsaw, Christopher Miller, Felicia Schwartz and Roman Olearchyk in Kyiv and Max Seddon in Riga
     
  18. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

  19. ltdan

    ltdan Nietenzähler

    Ukraine 2022
    Loosely based on GoT: Winter is coming...
    Traditionally, winter campaigns in the East are the rule rather than the exception
    And just as traditionally brutal - in Germany we have known this since 1422....
    AAjpg.jpg
     
  20. brithm

    brithm Senior Member

    Ukraine’s Appetite for Weapons Is Straining Western Stockpiles

     
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