Ukraine War. 2022-

Admittedly, I didn't have to be particularly creative myself: it was enough to look at the German advance in the direction of Rostov in 1942 and the Soviet advance in the direction of Belgorod - Kharkov - Krasnoyarsk in 1943/44. The terrain and infrastructure conditions for offensive operations have not really changed significantly since then.

good summary of the events

 

Just realized BMPs have been in front line service for almost sixty years.

 

And still not Molotov Cocktail save!

All the best

Andreas

 

The sentiment you express (not being personal, by the way, it's a common argument) is exactly the one which Vlad was counting on to paralyze people. And it seems to be working, does it not? Yet the risk must be faced sometime.

 

Europe is piling troops on the border. The continent has never felt so small...I honestly think that we need some time to come to terms with the new reality. It doesn't feel like paralysis...there is a determination and a sense of common purpose that I don't recall since long before the fall of the wall...

 

Rich I quite agree

Everyone is helping which shows unity
The threat of nuclear weapons quite clearly shows the nuts have worked loose

 

The military threat to Finland and Sweden showed that already. We are in full 'Wo ist Steiner!?' mode here.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=488505589511911

Let's hope the 9mm Makarov solution is being applied before something even more serious happens.

All the best

Andreas

 

red - Russian terrain gains
green - Russian projected Novorossia.
Ukrainian troops east of the Kharkiv - Mariupol line will soon be cut off.
Given the substantial reserves the Russian army is holding in the Donbas region,
the situation east of the Dnieper will soon become "complicated" for the Ukrainian army

 

Even if Russia takes Kyiv and installs a puppet government, the Ukrainians won't lay down their arms. I suspect the resulting insurgency would resemble Afghanistan and Iraq at its worst (but with more NLAWs and MANPADS).

 

I've updated yesterday's musings with an overview of the road and rail network. Some concerning developments overnight in the Zhytomyr direction.

https://crusaderproject.wordpress.com/2022/02/28/observations-on-the-war-in-ukraine-ii/

All the best

Andreas

 

Neat analysis, I am making similar observations.

It seems this is just becoming a game of time:
In the next 14 days the rasputitza will set in, after which everything outside paved roads will literally drown in mud for almost a month.
Russia knows this with absolute certainty, so the suspicion is growing that they are indeed behind in the operational plan in the north.

What is decisive IMHO is further south on the Dnieper bend and in the Donbas region: here the troops coming from Crimea are making good progress in the steppe landscape, which is practically undefendable.
In Mariupol, considerable skirmishes are possible because, among others, the ultra-right-wing nationalist Azov Brigade is based there.

Just some personal impressions:
Far more than the alertness of Russian nuclear units, I am concerned about how both sides are bringing mercenaries into Ukraine:
Chechens on the Russian side, ultra-right forces on the Ukrainian side.
If Vlad wanted to denazify Ukraine, he has achieved the opposite: the air is on fire in certain networks right now and a literal pilgrimage is being organised. (Just don't ask me how I know)
Perfect conditions for a really filthy war - from which, as always, the civilian population will suffer the most.

 

Indications are now that the Belarussians will come to fight on the Brest - Kovel axis. Just hope the Ukrainians haven't left the cupboard bare in that region.

I suspect they'll wait for the talks to end without result and then cross...

https://twitter.com/KremlinTrolls/status/1498277263690842112

All the best

Andreas

 

I don't pretend to understand all of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum but isn't the gist of it that if Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons the US and the UK would come to its aid if attacked?

Haven't heard a peep about it from the news readers or politicians.

 

Strange to see those who complained the most about 'Cancel Culture' are so enthusiastically in favour of it now.

 

keep to the script

 

I think everyone here accepts it is one person who has caused this and we do not blame the Russian people at all.
As stated it is the ordinary citizens who suffer in all conflicts.

 

You can say that, but the whole of Europe will then be the front line...Will it help the Ukranians if Vlad the Invader chooses for Mutually Assured Destruction ?
Rich Payne
We ARE at war, and the whole of Europe IS on the front line. In fact the parallels to the beginnings of ww2 are so striking, how can anyone not see it? I hope our politicians don't do a Chamberlain...

 

Years ago I was sitting in the garden and suddenly heard explosions - and wondered. When I mentioned this to my neighbour Sergei some time later, he told me that uhh...his father...um...was celebrating the...errr...anniversary of the victory over the...cough...fascists....

Well, if I don't hear any explosions next May 8, I will offer the good man that he can use my leftovers from last New Year's Eve
Certain traditions are always worth celebrating, no matter what's going on in the world at the moment