The CV19 thread

Discussion in 'The Barracks' started by Dave55, Feb 28, 2020.

  1. Robert-w

    Robert-w Banned

    Nothing changes - the carousel of fate keeps going round and eeejuts can still be produced by other eeejuts in their sparetime.

    BTW back in the late 60s I was doing post grad business studies and sharing a maisonette with two other guys, one was a research chemist and the other a banker who also compiled cryptic crosswords for the Sunday Times. Because I was on university hours I got home first and my vital duty was to switch the television on to warm up so that the brains of British industry didn't miss any of the Magic Roundabout!
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2020
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  2. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

    The Coronapocalyps in Holland:

    On Feb 27th, 2020, the first case of Covid19 was discovered in southern Holland. It later transpired that the virus was already in the Netherlands on February 15, twelve days before the first patient was officially tested positive. For several weeks it spread undisturbed, with the massively celebrated carnival in the Catholic south of our country acting as a catalyst. The Netherlands below the rivers became a true hotbed for the virus. In late afternoon of Sunday 15 March Holland went into pause: bars and restaurants were closed, social distancing, no public gatherings of over 100 people. At the time we had 1.413 registered patients and 24 deaths. The actual number of infections was higher, because not everyone in Holland is tested, only those who are "at risk of a serious disease course" - the real number of infections on 16 March was estimated at about 6000 people. Re the deaths - the real number of deceased patients in Holland, is probably higher, since only the deaths of confirmed Covid patients are registered.

    Since then I've been editing on a daily basis how the situation in Holland changes. These are 'only' official figures. The actual number of infections and deaths is most likely much higher:

    17 March - 19 new death cases, that makes 43; total confirmed patients 1705 (an increase of 292)
    18 March - 15 new deaths, total now risen to 58; total confirmed patients 2051 (an increase of 346)
    19 March - 18 new deaths, total now 76; total confirmed patients 2465 (an increase of 414)
    20 March - 30 people died over the last 24 hours; total now 106; total confirmed patients 2994 (an increase of 529)
    21 March - 30 deaths in the last 24 hours, death toll now 136; total confirmed patients 3631 (an increase of 637)
    22 March - 43 deaths, death toll now 179; total confirmed patients 4216 (an increase of 585)
    23 March - 34 people died over the last 24 hours; total number 213; total confirmed patients 4.749 (an increase of 533)

    As of March 23rd further restrictions became effective - (an almost complete) lock down: schools were closed, no public gathering of more than three people, work at home, social distancing (these measures are effective until April 28th)

    24 March - 63 deaths; total number now 276; total confirmed patients 5560 (increase of 811)
    25 March - 80 new deaths, total now 356; total confirmed patients 6412 (an increase of 852)
    26 March - 78 deaths, total now 434; total confirmed patients 7431 (an increase of 1019)
    27 March - 112 deaths, total now 546; total confirmed patients 8603 (an increase of 1172)
    28 March - 93 new deaths, total now 639; total confirmed patient 9762 (an increase of 1159).
    29 March - 132 new deaths, the death toll now is 771; total confirmed patients 10.866 (an increase of 1104)
    30 March - 93 new deaths, total now is 864; total confirmed patients 11.750 (an increase of 884)
    31 March - 175 new deaths, total now 1.039; total confirmed patients 12.595 (an increase of 845)
    1 April - 134 new deaths, total now 1.173; total confirmed patients 13.614 (an increase of 1.019)
    2 April - 166 new deaths, the death toll now is 1.339; total confirmed patients 14.697 (an increase of 1.083).
    3 April - 148 new deaths, total number now 1.487; total confirmed patients 15.723 (an increase of 1.026)
    4 April - 164 new deaths, total now 1.651; total confirmed patients 16.627 (an increase of 902)
    5 April - 115 new deaths, total now 1.766; total confirmed patients 17.851 (an increase of 1.224)
    6 April - 101 new deaths, total now 1.867; total confirmed patients 18.803 (an increase of 952)
    7 April - 234 new deaths, total now 2.101; total confirmed patients 19.580 (an increase of 777)
    8 April - 147 new deaths, which brings the total number to 2.248; number of confirmed patients is 20.549 (an increase of 969).
    9 April - 148 new deaths, total now is 2.396; number of confirmed patients 21.762 (an increase of 1.213)
    10 April - 115 new deaths, total now is 2.511; number of confirmed patients 23.097 (an increase of 1.335)
    11 April - 132 new deaths, total now 2.643; number of confirmed patients is 24.413 (an increase of 1.316).
    12 April - 94 new deaths, total now 2.737; number of confirmed patients is 25.587 (an increase of 1.174).
    13 April - 86 new deaths, total now 2.823; number of confirmed patients is 26.551 (an increase of 964).
    14 April - 122 new deaths, total now 2.945; number of confirmed patients is 27.419 (an increase of 868).
    15 April - 189 new deaths, total now 3.134; number of confirmed cases 28.153 (an increase of 739)
    16 April - 181 new deaths, total now 3.315; number of confirmed cases 29.214 (an increase of 1.061)
    17 April - 144 new deaths, total now 3.459; number of confirmed cases 30.449 (an increase of 1.235)
    18 April - 142 deaths, total now 3.601; number of confirmed cases 31.589 (an increase of 1.140)
    19 April - 83 deaths, total now 3.684; number of confirmed cases 32.655 (an increase of 1.066)
    20 April - 67 deaths, total now 3.751; number of confirmed cases 33.405 (an increase of 750)
    21 April - 165 deaths, total now 3.916; number of confirmed cases 34.134 (an increase of 729)
    22 April - 138 deaths, total now 4.054; number of confirmed cases 34.842 (an increase of 708)
    23 April - 123 deaths, total now 4.177; number of confirmed cases 35.729 (an increase of 887)
    24 April - 112 deaths, total now 4.289; number of confirmed cases 36.535 (an increase of 806)
    25 April - 120 deaths, total now 4.409; number of confirmed cases 37.190 (an increase of 655)
    26 April - 66 deaths, total now 4.475; number of confirmed cases 37.845 (an increase of 655)
    27 April - 43 deaths, total now 4.518 number of confirmed cases 38.245 (an increase of 400)
    28 April - 48 deaths, total now 4.566 number of confirmed cases 38.416 (an increase of 171)
    29 April - 145 deaths, total now 4.711 number of confirmed cases 38.802 (an increase of 386)
    30 April - 84 deaths, total now 4.795 number of confirmed cases 39.316 (an increase of 514)
    1 May - 98 new deaths, total now 4.893; number of confirmed cases 39.791 (an increase of 475)
    2 May - 94 new deaths, total now 4.987; number of confirmed cases 40.236 (an increase of 445)
    3 May - 69 new deaths, total now 5.056; number of confirmed cases 40.571 (an increase of 335)
    4 May - 26 new deaths, total now 5.082; number of confirmed cases 40.770 (an increase of 199)
    5 May - 86 new deaths, total now 5.168; number of confirmed cases 41.087 (an increase of 317)
    6 May - 36 new deaths, total now 5.204; number of confirmed cases 41.319 (an increase of 232)
    7 May - 84 new deaths, total now 5.288; number of confirmed cases 41.774 (an increase of 455)
    8 May - 63 new deaths, total now 5.359; number of confirmed cases 42.093 (an increase of 319)
    9 May - 71 new deaths, total now 5.422; number of confirmed cases 42.382 (an increase of 289)
    10 May - 18 new deaths, total now 5.440; number of confirmed cases 42.627 (an increase of 245)

    From 11 May onward schools partly reopened, as are the barber shops(!). We now are allowed to go outside, provided we keep social distance (1,5 meters) and do not crowd (3 = a crowd). Effects of these mitigations will be visible in two to three weeks. From June 1st, if all goes well, further steps will be set in re-opening.

    11 May - 16 new deaths, total now 5.456; number of confirmed cases 42.788 (an increase of 161)
    12 May - 54 new deaths, total now 5.510; number of confirmed cases 42.948 (an increase of 196)
    13 May - 52 new deaths, total now 5.590; number of confirmed cases 43.211 (an increase of 227)
    14 May - 28 new deaths, total now 5.562; number of confirmed cases 43.481 (an increase of 270)
    15 May - 53 new deaths, total now 5.643; number of confirmed cases 43.681 (an increase of 200)
    16 May - 27 new deaths, total now 5.670; number of confirmed cases 43.870 (an increase of 189)
    17 May - 10 new deaths, total now 5.680; number of confirmed cases 43.995 (an increase of 125)
    18 May - 14 new deaths, total now 5.694; number of confirmed cases 44.141 (an increase of 146)
    19 May - 21 new deaths, total now 5.715; number of confirmed cases 44.249 (an increase of 108)
    20 May - 33 new deaths, total now 5.748; number of confirmed cases 44.447 (an increase of 198)
    21 May - 27 new deaths, total now 5.775; number of confirmed cases 44.700 (an increase of 253)
    22 May - 13 new deaths, total now 5.788; number of confirmed cases 44.888 (an increase of 188)
    23 May - 23 new deaths, total now 5.811; number of confirmed cases 45.064 (an increase of 176)
    24 May - 11 new deaths, total now 5.822; number of confirmed cases 45.236 (an increase of 172)
    25 May - 8 new deaths, total now 5.830; number of confirmed cases 45.445 (an increase of 209)
    26 May - 26 new deaths, total now 5.856; number of confirmed cases 45.578 (an increase of 133)
    27 May - 15 new deaths, total now 5.871; number of confirmed cases 45.768 (an increase of 190)
    28 May - 32 new deaths, total now 5.903; number of confirmed cases 45.950 (an increase of 182)
    29 May - 28 new deaths, total now 5.931; number of confirmed cases 46.126 (an increase of 176)
    30 May - 20 new deaths, total now 5.951; number of confirmed cases 46.257 (an increase of 131)
    31 May - 5 new deaths, total now 5.956; number of confirmed cases 46.442 (an increase of 185)
    1 June - 6 new deaths, total now 5.962; number of confirmed cases 46.545 (an increase of 103)
    2 June - 5 new deaths, total now 5.967; number of confirmed cases 46.647 (an increase of 102)
    3 June - 10 new deaths, total now 5.977; number of confirmed cases 46.733 (an increase of 86)
    4 June - 13 new deaths, total now 5.990; number of confirmed cases 46.942 (an increase of 209)
    5 June - 15 new deaths, total now 6.005; number of confirmed cases 47.152 (an increase of 210)
    6 June - 6 new deaths, total now 6.011; number of confirmed cases 47.335 (an increase of 183)
    7 June - 2 new deaths, total now 6.013; number of confirmed cases 47.574 (an increase of 239)
    8 June - 3 new deaths, total now 6.016; number of confirmed cases 47.739 (an increase of 165)
    9 June - 15 new deaths, total now 6.031; number of confirmed cases 47.903 (an increase of 164)
    10 June - 11 new deaths, total now 6.042; number of confirmed cases 48.087 (an increase of 184)
    11 June - 2 new deaths, total now 6.044; number of confirmed cases 48.251 (an increase of 164)
    12 June - 9 new deaths, total now 6.053; number of confirmed cases 48.461 (an increase of 210)
    13 June - 4 new deaths, total now 6.057; number of confirmed cases 48.640 (an increase of 179)
    14 June - 2 new deaths, total now 6.059; number of confirmed cases 48.783 (an increase of 143)
    15 June - 6 new deaths, total now 6.065; number of confirmed cases 48.948 (an increase of 165)
    16 June - 5 new deaths, total now 6.070; number of confirmed cases 49.087 (an increase of 140)
    17 June - 4 new deaths, total now 6.074; number of confirmed cases 49.204 (an increase of 119)
    18 June - 4 new deaths, total now 6.078; number of confirmed cases 49.319 (an increase of 132)
    19 June - 3 new deaths, total now 6.081; number of confirmed cases 49.426 (an increase of 116)
    20 June - 8 new deaths, total now 6.089; number of confirmed cases 49.502 (an increase of 91)

    Edit today:
    21 June - 1 new death, total now 6.090; number of confirmed cases 49.593 (an increase of 98)



    "All Quiet on the COVID Front". After eleven weeks of lock down Holland is now at the end of the third week of a gradual reopening. We are carefully taking the path of normal life again.

    The new infections remain constant, which is due to the higher amount of corona tests currently being conducted. Since Monday, June 1, anyone with complaints can get tested quickly, and in most cases the results will follow within a few days.

    Today's hospital admissions were 2. Yesterday the number was
    11, the day before yesterday 3 and the days before that resp. 4, 4, 3, 6, 9, 5, 3, 6, 5, 4, 3 ,11,12, 9, 6, 9, 5, 8, 9, 16, 7, 10, 8, 13, 10, 7, 13, 14, 34, 25, 15, 45, 35, 27, 52, 35, 36, 22, 58, 35, 39, 27, 89, 44, 42, 97, 85, 84, 76, 88, 65, 75, 100, 123, 137, 124, 118, 75, 110, 129, 156, 182, 188, 210, 147, 196,189, 225, 237, 308, 292, 260, 253, 336, 502, 625, 447 and 722.

    The limited number of available ICU-beds is no longer an issue, with the lower influx rates we will cope. Today (18 June) the number of COVID19 ICU-patients is 67.

    On the minus side: Though it looks that we are past the peak the virus is still slumbering. We have registered almost 2.950 new cases since June 1st and we are still losing people on a daily basis - though the numbers of deaths have fallen drastically. 114 people perished since June 1st. We now officially have registered nearly 49.593 corona patients, of these 11.849 were admitted to hospital and a number of 6.090 died. The tally however is incomplete, more people have become infected with the virus and more died from its effects than has been registered. It gradually becomes clear that this is a substantial group and the official numbers are only part of the iceberg. Based on a study of the average death rates over the past few years in Holland, the real number of Covid-deaths might be many thousands more (latest estimate is 3.600). Especially hard hit are the nursing homes. While the focus lay on the capacity in the hospitals, the coronavirus in nursing homes was spreading like wildfire. This would bring deaths in Holland at least at 9.674 (= 562,44 per million).

    Group immunity comes painfully slowly: In average, nearly 5.5 percent of Dutch blood donors have developed antibodies to the coronavirus. That is a "modest increase" from the 3 percent measured in April. It can therefore take another two years before group immunity is achieved in the Netherlands.

    This is not a normal Flu: The health of many corona patients who have not been hospitalized is still "shockingly bad" after months. Many home patients even have trouble walking. Fatigue, shortness of breath, chest pressure, headache, muscle pain: Almost three months after the first symptoms of the virus, some of the corona patients who were sick at home still have serious complaints.
    This is evident from a Dutch poll by the Longfonds, the CIRO center and Maastricht University among more than 1600 people about complaints after corona. No less than 95 percent of respondents report problems with simple daily activities. 85 percent of the participants - with an average age of 53 - say they had a good condition before the infection. Only 6 percent say that their health is now back on track. Longfonds leader Michael Rutgers: “We are really shocked by this. More than six in ten even have trouble walking."


    For comparison the (official) mortality rate caused by Covid per million of inhabitants:
    (based on the deaths registered by the John Hopkins University)

    Belgium
    (11,4 mln) with 9.695 deaths, it is 850,42
    UK (66,5 mln) this number, with 42.717 deaths, is 642,36
    Spain (46,7 mln), with 28.322 deaths, is 606,47
    Italy (60,4 mln) with 34.634 deaths, the number is 573,41
    Sweden (10,2 mln) with 5.053 deaths is 495,39
    France (67,0 mln) with 29.643 deaths, is 442,43
    USA (327,2 mln) with 119.969 deaths, it's 366,65
    Holland (17,2 mln) with 6.090 deaths, it now is 354,07
    Canada (37,1 mln) with 8.482 deaths is 228,63
    Germany (82,9 mln) with 8.895 deaths is 107,30

    Population numbers (courtesy SteveDee) Coronavirus deaths per million by country 2020 | Statista. Some countries - like Belgium - include suspected Covid deaths that were not tested. The official corona mortality of various countries is therefore less comparable.

    Belgium still is the relatively hardest hit country in Europe and maybe world-wide (a sky-high death rate of 847+ per million inhabitants - but Belgium has been very strict with itself. It counts not only deaths after a positive test, but also of persons with symptoms that indicate the virus.). The UK and Spain follow at a distance. It seems that Germany, where the virus spread at the same time as in Holland, is coping well ... what is their secret? (28.000 ICU's and they also do a lot of testing, contact tracing and isolating).
    The death rates in Sweden, the only country in Europe that opted for a smooth approach, with only a very limited lockdown, are steadily on the rise and significantly higher than the surrounding Scandinavian countries and now even is higher than France. The Swedes now regret the chosen approach.
    The deaths in the USA are steadily rising and at first sight seem shockingly high, but the country has a large population, so the death rate still is relatively low. Equal to the death rate in Holland. If the USA would have been hit as hard as Belgium, deaths would number about 278.200+. The USA is a large country with wide areas with a sparse population density where the virus does not spread easily. My best guess is that the USA will approach the rates in France, which also is alternated by overcrowded cities and a sparsely populated countryside, provided they act wisely and do not open up too soon. This still will mean a considerable death toll of about 143.400+.
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2020
  3. Buteman

    Buteman 336/102 LAA Regiment (7 Lincolns), RA Patron

    Stolpi,

    I spoke to my Sister today about the stats in Holland. She used to stay with Family & Friends in her youth in Noord Brabant, as it coincided with her birthday during Carnival. It was completely nuts and great fun. Similarly, the Breda Jazz festival which was supposed to have happened in fact now (49th Anniversary), so that's not going to happen, as it would always been attended by many thousands of people. That will not happen for quite some time.

    The Cheltenham Festival (Horse racing) in March (60,000 plus attending) is another bad decision that should not have happened. They said it would decimate the local economy, if it were cancelled.

    Rob.
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2020
  4. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

    This year Carnival in Noord-Brabant and the rest of southern Holland acted as a catalyst for the spreading of COVID in Holland (a so-called superspread event) ... as a consequence the south of Holland (especially Noord-Brabant) was the hardest hit region. Now that we have left the COVID-peak behind us the Carnival party is finally over, or as the Dutch living north of the rivers say: "Nederland is eindelijk uitgehost ... ".

    I sincerely hope next year's edition of Carnival will be skipped out of respect for the 10.000 dead and all the agony it caused.

    Probably not :seeno:
     
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2020
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  5. High Wood

    High Wood Well-Known Member

    The view from Caer Caradoc near Chapel Lawn this morning. The dark streak at the top left is a Red Kite.

    Caer Caradoc 016.JPG
     
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  6. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

    Ales Stenar (Ale's Stones): A Bronze Age Sunship

    Last year I visited Ales Stenar in southern Sweden, not far from Ystad - the living and working place of Inspector Kurt Wallander. Ales Stenar is a large Bronze Age monument with stones put up in the shape of a large stone ship. It functioned as a kind of sundial - much like Stonehenge (?).

    Ale 6.jpg
    Ale 7.jpg
    Ale 4.jpg

    Ale 5 (1).jpg
    Ale 1 (1).jpg
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2020
  7. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

    ...and of course - there was no escaping it - we also had to visit Almhult. The place where in 1958 the very first IKEA store in the world opened up. The site is now the IKEA museum (a sort of modern archeology ;)):

    IKEA 2.jpg

    IKEA 1.jpg
    IKEA 3.jpg
    IKEA 4.jpg
    IKEA 7.jpg
    IKEA 6.jpg

    IKEA 8.jpg IKEA 9.jpg
    Det är bokälskarens favorit - how true ...
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2020
  8. High Wood

    High Wood Well-Known Member

    Last Sunday we walked up Hodre Hill and took these photographs of Caer Caradoc across the valley. There is an Iron Age hill fort which we have never climbed up to see.
    Chapel Lawn 012.JPG

    Chapel Lawn 019.JPG

    Caer Caradoc 039.JPG
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2020
  9. High Wood

    High Wood Well-Known Member

    Today, we climbed Caer Caradoc and it is difficult to capture the scale of the fort in photographs.
    Caer Caradoc 023.JPG
    Caer Caradoc 025.JPG Caer Caradoc 025.JPG
    Caer Caradoc 026.JPG
    Caer Caradoc 027.JPG
    Caer Caradoc 030.JPG
     
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  10. High Wood

    High Wood Well-Known Member

    We didn't meet anyone all morning except for this little chap. He didn't give his name but like most Shropshire folk he is probably quite friendly once he gets to know you.
    Caer Caradoc 037.JPG

    I have just looked him up and he is apparently very common and goes by the name of Agonum muelleri.
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2020
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  11. High Wood

    High Wood Well-Known Member

    I have never been a huge fan of IKEA but we did have a brief flirtation back in the mid 1970s, it mainly involved a few scatter cushions some ethnic rugs an perhaps a lamp stand or two.

    As I have got older I have begun to regard IKEA as one of the great con tricks of modern life, getting the masses to exchange hard earned cash for convenience over quality. Likewise the factory being a museum now seems to be making a virtue out of a necessity, as I seem to remember that most of their production has now moved overseas.

    As for the Billy bookcase, how can it go out of style when it has never been in? It is hardly Charles Rennie Mackintosh.
     
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  12. High Wood

    High Wood Well-Known Member

    Now this is an iconic design known the world over and even though its function has gone it is still kept as an ornament *.

    Chapel Lawn 036.JPG

    *Especially now that the public conveniences are no longer open.
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2020
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  13. KevinC

    KevinC Slightly wierd

    Superman still needs it
     
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  14. canuck

    canuck Closed Account

    This project is made for you.

     
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  15. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

    Britain rules the waves ;)
     
  16. High Wood

    High Wood Well-Known Member

    Not any more. England's dancing days are done.

     
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  17. TTH

    TTH Senior Member

    I visited London several times in the late 90s-early 2000s when these were still in widespread use. The phones often failed to work, and when they did they were outrageously expensive. Anyway, you couldn't see out of the phone boxes most of the time for the tart cards.
     
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  18. canuck

    canuck Closed Account

    That might fetch $300,000 in Toronto's real estate market.
     
  19. canuck

    canuck Closed Account

    Along with a pervasive smell of urine.
     
  20. High Wood

    High Wood Well-Known Member

    As I said, our dancing days are done, the party is over.
     

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