The CV19 thread

Discussion in 'The Barracks' started by Dave55, Feb 28, 2020.

  1. High Wood

    High Wood Well-Known Member

    There is a great and very telling line in an episode of Only Fools and Horses, I cannot remember it exactly but it is something along the lines of. Del boy "Rodney, why didn't you take the lift? Rodney, "I didn't fancy it, someone had taken a piss in the corner again".
    Delboy, "What is wrong with these people, Why can't they use a phone box like everyone else?".
     
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  2. A-58

    A-58 Not so senior Member Patron


    That is so cool! There's gotta be a market for such things. He could go to trade shows, demonstrations at dealerships during the spring sales events. The possibilities are endless.
     
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  3. Dave55

    Dave55 Atlanta, USA

    "Come to Chicago. New York has plenty of crime and urine but it's just not cold enough!"
     
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  4. Buteman

    Buteman 336/102 LAA Regiment (7 Lincolns), RA Patron

    I had to walk through town in Gloucester today. Big queues for TK Max and Sports Direct. All youngster's and no social distancing. Second wave of Covid19 coming to a town near you. Idiots the lot of them. At least the Town Crier has started up again. :D
     
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  5. SDP

    SDP Incurable Cometoholic

    They think they are immune. Idiots the lot of them and selfish to the n th degree. They clearly don't have any old relatives that they want to keep longterm! Problem with this lot is that 'they don't know that they don't know'.
     
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  6. ozzy16

    ozzy16 Patron Patron

    Saw this today, very true.
    Graham.
    xxx.JPG
     
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  7. TTH

    TTH Senior Member

    The Sun or News of the World would have put in something about boobs.
     
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  8. Owen

    Owen -- --- -.. MOD

    Blimey - last edition was back in 2011.
    Time flies.
    News of the World - Wikipedia
     
  9. High Wood

    High Wood Well-Known Member

    Jim Hacker explains who reads the newspapers
    Hacker: Don't tell me about the press. I know exactly who reads the papers. The Daily Mirror is read by people who think they run the country; The Guardian is read by people who think they ought to run the country; The Times is read by the people who actually do run the country; the Daily Mail is read by the wives of the people who run the country; the Financial Times is read by people who own the country; the Morning Star is read by people who think the country ought to be run by another country, and the Daily Telegraph is read by people who think it is.

    Sir Humphrey: Prime Minister, what about the people who read The Sun?

    Bernard: Sun readers don't care who runs the country, as long as she's got big tits.
     
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  10. Dave55

    Dave55 Atlanta, USA

  11. TTH

    TTH Senior Member

    Caprice or Sam Fox for PM!
     
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  12. A-58

    A-58 Not so senior Member Patron


    What, the flu affects boobs now? Dang! Good googly moogly what's next?
     
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  13. TTH

    TTH Senior Member

    I don't really know much about British newspapers, but even as a kid I had a soft spot for the Mirror. It had Andy Capp!
     
  14. canuck

    canuck Closed Account

  15. Buteman

    Buteman 336/102 LAA Regiment (7 Lincolns), RA Patron

    Once again Nature is ignoring the Human race. The Gulls were going completely nuts across town. It was thundering and raining again and as I looked up, there was a Heron on a roof, raiding nests for eggs and it was eventually driven off. Strange, as they tend to stay well away from trouble.
     
  16. Grasmere

    Grasmere Active Member

    Everyone seems to think they can drive at ridiculous speeds while the traffic has been light and ride bicycles on the pavement.
     
  17. KevinC

    KevinC Slightly wierd

    There is a website I check everyday that has global infections

    ArcGIS Dashboards

    The sad thing is South Africa has now made it to the main screen. No longer have to scroll down to find our data
     
  18. stolpi

    stolpi Well-Known Member

    The Coronapocalyps in Holland:

    On Feb 27th, 2020, the first case of Covid19 was discovered in southern Holland. It later transpired that the virus was already in the Netherlands on February 15, twelve days before the first patient was officially tested positive. For several weeks it spread undisturbed, with the massively celebrated carnival in the Catholic south of our country acting as a catalyst. The Netherlands below the rivers became a true hotbed for the virus. In late afternoon of Sunday 15 March Holland went into pause: bars and restaurants were closed, social distancing, no public gatherings of over 100 people. At the time we had 1.413 registered patients and 24 deaths. The actual number of infections was higher, because not everyone in Holland is tested, only those who are "at risk of a serious disease course" - the real number of infections on 16 March was estimated at about 6000 people. Re the deaths - the real number of deceased patients in Holland, is probably higher, since only the deaths of confirmed Covid patients are registered.

    Since then I've been editing on a daily basis how the situation in Holland changes. These are 'only' official figures. The actual number of infections and deaths is most likely much higher:

    17 March - 19 new death cases, that makes 43; total confirmed patients 1705 (an increase of 292)
    18 March - 15 new deaths, total now risen to 58; total confirmed patients 2051 (an increase of 346)
    19 March - 18 new deaths, total now 76; total confirmed patients 2465 (an increase of 414)
    20 March - 30 people died over the last 24 hours; total now 106; total confirmed patients 2994 (an increase of 529)
    21 March - 30 deaths in the last 24 hours, death toll now 136; total confirmed patients 3631 (an increase of 637)
    22 March - 43 deaths, death toll now 179; total confirmed patients 4216 (an increase of 585)
    23 March - 34 people died over the last 24 hours; total number 213; total confirmed patients 4.749 (an increase of 533)

    As of March 23rd further restrictions became effective - (an almost complete) lock down: schools were closed, no public gathering of more than three people, work at home, social distancing (these measures are effective until April 28th)

    24 March - 63 deaths; total number now 276; total confirmed patients 5560 (increase of 811)
    25 March - 80 new deaths, total now 356; total confirmed patients 6412 (an increase of 852)
    26 March - 78 deaths, total now 434; total confirmed patients 7431 (an increase of 1019)
    27 March - 112 deaths, total now 546; total confirmed patients 8603 (an increase of 1172)
    28 March - 93 new deaths, total now 639; total confirmed patient 9762 (an increase of 1159).
    29 March - 132 new deaths, the death toll now is 771; total confirmed patients 10.866 (an increase of 1104)
    30 March - 93 new deaths, total now is 864; total confirmed patients 11.750 (an increase of 884)
    31 March - 175 new deaths, total now 1.039; total confirmed patients 12.595 (an increase of 845)
    1 April - 134 new deaths, total now 1.173; total confirmed patients 13.614 (an increase of 1.019)
    2 April - 166 new deaths, the death toll now is 1.339; total confirmed patients 14.697 (an increase of 1.083).
    3 April - 148 new deaths, total number now 1.487; total confirmed patients 15.723 (an increase of 1.026)
    4 April - 164 new deaths, total now 1.651; total confirmed patients 16.627 (an increase of 902)
    5 April - 115 new deaths, total now 1.766; total confirmed patients 17.851 (an increase of 1.224)
    6 April - 101 new deaths, total now 1.867; total confirmed patients 18.803 (an increase of 952)
    7 April - 234 new deaths, total now 2.101; total confirmed patients 19.580 (an increase of 777)
    8 April - 147 new deaths, which brings the total number to 2.248; number of confirmed patients is 20.549 (an increase of 969).
    9 April - 148 new deaths, total now is 2.396; number of confirmed patients 21.762 (an increase of 1.213)
    10 April - 115 new deaths, total now is 2.511; number of confirmed patients 23.097 (an increase of 1.335)
    11 April - 132 new deaths, total now 2.643; number of confirmed patients is 24.413 (an increase of 1.316).
    12 April - 94 new deaths, total now 2.737; number of confirmed patients is 25.587 (an increase of 1.174).
    13 April - 86 new deaths, total now 2.823; number of confirmed patients is 26.551 (an increase of 964).
    14 April - 122 new deaths, total now 2.945; number of confirmed patients is 27.419 (an increase of 868).
    15 April - 189 new deaths, total now 3.134; number of confirmed cases 28.153 (an increase of 739)
    16 April - 181 new deaths, total now 3.315; number of confirmed cases 29.214 (an increase of 1.061)
    17 April - 144 new deaths, total now 3.459; number of confirmed cases 30.449 (an increase of 1.235)
    18 April - 142 deaths, total now 3.601; number of confirmed cases 31.589 (an increase of 1.140)
    19 April - 83 deaths, total now 3.684; number of confirmed cases 32.655 (an increase of 1.066)
    20 April - 67 deaths, total now 3.751; number of confirmed cases 33.405 (an increase of 750)
    21 April - 165 deaths, total now 3.916; number of confirmed cases 34.134 (an increase of 729)
    22 April - 138 deaths, total now 4.054; number of confirmed cases 34.842 (an increase of 708)
    23 April - 123 deaths, total now 4.177; number of confirmed cases 35.729 (an increase of 887)
    24 April - 112 deaths, total now 4.289; number of confirmed cases 36.535 (an increase of 806)
    25 April - 120 deaths, total now 4.409; number of confirmed cases 37.190 (an increase of 655)
    26 April - 66 deaths, total now 4.475; number of confirmed cases 37.845 (an increase of 655)
    27 April - 43 deaths, total now 4.518 number of confirmed cases 38.245 (an increase of 400)
    28 April - 48 deaths, total now 4.566 number of confirmed cases 38.416 (an increase of 171)
    29 April - 145 deaths, total now 4.711 number of confirmed cases 38.802 (an increase of 386)
    30 April - 84 deaths, total now 4.795 number of confirmed cases 39.316 (an increase of 514)
    1 May - 98 new deaths, total now 4.893; number of confirmed cases 39.791 (an increase of 475)
    2 May - 94 new deaths, total now 4.987; number of confirmed cases 40.236 (an increase of 445)
    3 May - 69 new deaths, total now 5.056; number of confirmed cases 40.571 (an increase of 335)
    4 May - 26 new deaths, total now 5.082; number of confirmed cases 40.770 (an increase of 199)
    5 May - 86 new deaths, total now 5.168; number of confirmed cases 41.087 (an increase of 317)
    6 May - 36 new deaths, total now 5.204; number of confirmed cases 41.319 (an increase of 232)
    7 May - 84 new deaths, total now 5.288; number of confirmed cases 41.774 (an increase of 455)
    8 May - 63 new deaths, total now 5.359; number of confirmed cases 42.093 (an increase of 319)
    9 May - 71 new deaths, total now 5.422; number of confirmed cases 42.382 (an increase of 289)
    10 May - 18 new deaths, total now 5.440; number of confirmed cases 42.627 (an increase of 245)

    From 11 May onward schools partly reopened, as are the barber shops(!). We now are allowed to go outside, provided we keep social distance (1,5 meters) and do not crowd (3 = a crowd). Effects of these mitigations will be visible in two to three weeks. From June 1st, if all goes well, further steps will be set in re-opening.

    11 May - 16 new deaths, total now 5.456; number of confirmed cases 42.788 (an increase of 161)
    12 May - 54 new deaths, total now 5.510; number of confirmed cases 42.948 (an increase of 196)
    13 May - 52 new deaths, total now 5.590; number of confirmed cases 43.211 (an increase of 227)
    14 May - 28 new deaths, total now 5.562; number of confirmed cases 43.481 (an increase of 270)
    15 May - 53 new deaths, total now 5.643; number of confirmed cases 43.681 (an increase of 200)
    16 May - 27 new deaths, total now 5.670; number of confirmed cases 43.870 (an increase of 189)
    17 May - 10 new deaths, total now 5.680; number of confirmed cases 43.995 (an increase of 125)
    18 May - 14 new deaths, total now 5.694; number of confirmed cases 44.141 (an increase of 146)
    19 May - 21 new deaths, total now 5.715; number of confirmed cases 44.249 (an increase of 108)
    20 May - 33 new deaths, total now 5.748; number of confirmed cases 44.447 (an increase of 198)
    21 May - 27 new deaths, total now 5.775; number of confirmed cases 44.700 (an increase of 253)
    22 May - 13 new deaths, total now 5.788; number of confirmed cases 44.888 (an increase of 188)
    23 May - 23 new deaths, total now 5.811; number of confirmed cases 45.064 (an increase of 176)
    24 May - 11 new deaths, total now 5.822; number of confirmed cases 45.236 (an increase of 172)
    25 May - 8 new deaths, total now 5.830; number of confirmed cases 45.445 (an increase of 209)
    26 May - 26 new deaths, total now 5.856; number of confirmed cases 45.578 (an increase of 133)
    27 May - 15 new deaths, total now 5.871; number of confirmed cases 45.768 (an increase of 190)
    28 May - 32 new deaths, total now 5.903; number of confirmed cases 45.950 (an increase of 182)
    29 May - 28 new deaths, total now 5.931; number of confirmed cases 46.126 (an increase of 176)
    30 May - 20 new deaths, total now 5.951; number of confirmed cases 46.257 (an increase of 131)
    31 May - 5 new deaths, total now 5.956; number of confirmed cases 46.442 (an increase of 185)
    1 June - 6 new deaths, total now 5.962; number of confirmed cases 46.545 (an increase of 103)
    2 June - 5 new deaths, total now 5.967; number of confirmed cases 46.647 (an increase of 102)
    3 June - 10 new deaths, total now 5.977; number of confirmed cases 46.733 (an increase of 86)
    4 June - 13 new deaths, total now 5.990; number of confirmed cases 46.942 (an increase of 209)
    5 June - 15 new deaths, total now 6.005; number of confirmed cases 47.152 (an increase of 210)
    6 June - 6 new deaths, total now 6.011; number of confirmed cases 47.335 (an increase of 183)
    7 June - 2 new deaths, total now 6.013; number of confirmed cases 47.574 (an increase of 239)
    8 June - 3 new deaths, total now 6.016; number of confirmed cases 47.739 (an increase of 165)
    9 June - 15 new deaths, total now 6.031; number of confirmed cases 47.903 (an increase of 164)
    10 June - 11 new deaths, total now 6.042; number of confirmed cases 48.087 (an increase of 184)
    11 June - 2 new deaths, total now 6.044; number of confirmed cases 48.251 (an increase of 164)
    12 June - 9 new deaths, total now 6.053; number of confirmed cases 48.461 (an increase of 210)
    13 June - 4 new deaths, total now 6.057; number of confirmed cases 48.640 (an increase of 179)
    14 June - 2 new deaths, total now 6.059; number of confirmed cases 48.783 (an increase of 143)
    15 June - 6 new deaths, total now 6.065; number of confirmed cases 48.948 (an increase of 165)
    16 June - 5 new deaths, total now 6.070; number of confirmed cases 49.087 (an increase of 140)
    17 June - 4 new deaths, total now 6.074; number of confirmed cases 49.204 (an increase of 119)
    18 June - 4 new deaths, total now 6.078; number of confirmed cases 49.319 (an increase of 132)
    19 June - 3 new deaths, total now 6.081; number of confirmed cases 49.426 (an increase of 116)
    20 June - 8 new deaths, total now 6.089; number of confirmed cases 49.502 (an increase of 91)
    21 June - 1 new death, total now 6.090; number of confirmed cases 49.593 (an increase of 98)
    22 June - 0 new deaths, total now 6.090; number of confirmed cases 49.658 (an increase of 69)
    23 June - 5 new deaths, total now 6.095; number of confirmed cases 49.772 (an increase of 70)

    24 June - 2 new deaths, total now 6.097; number of confirmed cases 49.804 (an increase of 83)
    25 June - 3 new deaths, total now 6.100; number of confirmed cases 49.914 (an increase of 111)
    26 June - 3 new deaths, total now 6.103; number of confirmed cases 50.005 (an increase of 96)
    27 June - 2 new deaths, total now 6.105; number of confirmed cases 50.074 (an increase of 71)
    28 June - 0 new deaths, total now 6.105; number of confirmed cases 50.147 (an increase of 74)

    Edit today:
    29 June - 2 new deaths, total now 6.107; number of confirmed cases 50.223 (an increase of 78)

    It remains "All Quiet on the COVID Front". The number of new infections in Holland are still going down, despite more intensive testing. Since June 1st, anyone with complaints can get tested quickly, and in most cases the results will follow within a few days.

    After eleven weeks of lock down Holland is now in the fifth week of a gradual reopening. We are carefully taking the path of normal life again, with emphasize on social distancing.
    Today's hospital admissions were 3. Yesterday the number was 3
    , the day before yesterday 6 and the days before that resp. 5,1, 6, 3, 2, 2, 11, 3, 4, 4, 3, 6, 9, 5, 3, 6, 5, 4, 3 ,11,12, 9, 6, 9, 5, 8, 9, 16, 7, 10, 8, 13, 10, 7, 13, 14, 34, 25, 15, 45, 35, 27, 52, 35, 36, 22, 58, 35, 39, 27, 89, 44, 42, 97, 85, 84, 76, 88, 65, 75, 100, 123, 137, 124, 118, 75, 110, 129, 156, 182, 188, 210, 147, 196,189, 225, 237, 308, 292, 260, 253, 336, 502, 625, 447 and 722.

    The limited number of available ICU-beds is no longer an issue, with the lower influx rates we will cope. Today (28 June) the number of COVID19 ICU-patients is 29.

    On the minus side: Though it looks that we are well past the peak the virus is still slumbering. We have registered about 3.430 new cases since June 1st and we are still losing people on a daily basis - though the numbers of deaths have fallen drastically. 129 people perished since June 1st. We now officially have registered 50.223 corona patients, of these 11.874 were admitted to hospital and a number of 6.107 died. The tally however is incomplete, more people have become infected with the virus and more died from its effects than has been registered. It gradually becomes clear that this is a substantial group and the official numbers are only part of the iceberg. Based on a study of the average death rates over the past few years in Holland, the real number of Covid-deaths might be many thousands more (latest estimate is 3.600). Especially hard hit are the nursing homes. While the focus lay on the capacity in the hospitals, the coronavirus in nursing homes was spreading like wildfire. This would bring deaths in Holland at least at
    9.695 (= 563,37 per million).

    Group immunity comes painfully slowly: In average, nearly 5.5 percent of Dutch blood donors have developed antibodies to the coronavirus. That is a "modest increase" from the 3 percent measured in April. It can therefore take another two years before group immunity is achieved in the Netherlands.

    This is not a normal Flu: The health of many corona patients who have not been hospitalized is still "shockingly bad" after months. Many home patients even have trouble walking. Fatigue, shortness of breath, chest pressure, headache, muscle pain: Almost three months after the first symptoms of the virus, some of the corona patients who were sick at home still have serious complaints. This is evident from a Dutch poll by the Longfonds, the CIRO center and Maastricht University among more than 1600 people about complaints after corona. No less than 95 percent of respondents report problems with simple daily activities. 85 percent of the participants - with an average age of 53 - say they had a good condition before the infection. Only 6 percent say that their health is now back on track. Longfonds leader Michael Rutgers: “We are really shocked by this. More than six in ten even have trouble walking."


    For comparison the (official) mortality rate caused by Covid per million of inhabitants:
    (based on the deaths registered by the John Hopkins University)

    Belgium
    (11,4 mln) with 9.732 deaths, it is 853,60
    UK (66,5 mln) this number, with 43.634 deaths, is 656,15
    Spain (46,7 mln), with 28.343 deaths, is 606,87
    Italy (60,4 mln) with 34.737 deaths, the number is 575,13
    Sweden (10,2 mln) with 5.280 deaths is 517,65
    France (67,0 mln) with 29.781 deaths, is 444,49
    USA (327,2 mln) with 125.803 deaths, it is 384,48
    Holland (17,2 mln) with 6.107 deaths, it now is 355,06
    Canada (37,1 mln) with 8.582 deaths is 231,32
    Germany (82,9 mln) with 8.968 deaths is 108,14

    Population numbers (courtesy SteveDee) Coronavirus deaths per million by country 2020 | Statista. Some countries - like Belgium - include suspected Covid deaths that were not tested. The official corona mortality of various countries is therefore less comparable.

    Belgium still is the relatively hardest hit country in Europe and maybe world-wide (a sky-high death rate of 853+ per million inhabitants - but Belgium has been very strict with itself. It counts not only deaths after a positive test, but also of persons with symptoms that indicate the virus.). The UK and Spain follow at a distance. It seems that Germany, where the virus spread at the same time as in Holland, is coping well ... what is their secret? (28.000 ICU's and they also do a lot of testing, contact tracing and isolating).
    The death rates in Sweden, the only country in Europe that opted for a smooth approach, with only a very limited lockdown, are steadily on the rise and significantly higher than the surrounding Scandinavian countries and now even is higher than France. The Swedes now regret the chosen approach.
    The deaths in the USA are steadily rising and at first sight seem shockingly high, but the country has a large population, so the death rate still is relatively low. Equal to the death rate in Holland. If the USA would have been hit as hard as Belgium, deaths would number about 279.000+. The USA is a large country with wide areas with a sparse population density where the virus does not spread easily. My best guess is that the USA will approach the rates in France, which also is alternated by overcrowded cities and a sparsely populated countryside, provided they act wisely and do not open up too soon. This still will mean a considerable death toll of 145.400+.
     
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2020
  19. Dave55

    Dave55 Atlanta, USA

  20. Charley Fortnum

    Charley Fortnum Dreaming of Red Eagles

    We managed three days with zero new cases or deaths back in May, but the medical authorities have just announced that they believe we're now into the much-heralded second wave.

    There have only been seventeen new cases today nationwide--and no deaths--but we've been running at around thirty to seventy cases daily for the past few weeks and the current trend is that there is currently no trend.

    The contract tracing operation here is incredible (eye-opening how much detail they can uncover: Patient A entered bathroom B 'X-minutes' after Patient C left), but the asymptomatic chains of infection mean that it's now become an endless (and joyless) game of whack-a-mole.

    Best of luck all the same, comrade.

    Edit: I'm talking here of South Korea.
     
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